The Battle for Congress: How Democrats and Republicans Are Preparing for the 2026 Midterm Elections

Atlanta:

First-term Republican Congressman Brian Jack has become a frequent visitor to the Oval Office. As his party's chief House campaign recruiter, the Georgia native regularly reviews polling data and candidate profiles with President Donald Trump.

Meanwhile, Democratic Congresswoman Lauren Underwood from Illinois conducts similar work for her party without White House access. She operates from Capitol Hill, making phone calls to identify and mentor candidates who might help Democrats overcome Republicans' narrow House majority in the November midterms.

Despite their differences, both lawmakers were shaped by the political dynamics of 2018, when Democrats captured numerous Republican seats, creating challenges for Trump's first term. Underwood won her election that year, while Jack later became responsible for managing the aftermath when appointed White House political director.

Underwood aims to replicate 2018's success, while Jack works diligently to prevent it.

Republicans have fully embraced Trump and his "Make America Great Again" platform, betting that strong enthusiasm from his base will outweigh broader concerns about his leadership.

"Many people are deeply inspired by President Trump," Jack explained regarding Republican House candidates. "They're eager to serve alongside him and the White House. This has been a powerful motivating factor for numerous potential candidates."

Underwood focuses on recruiting candidates with strong community involvement and public service beyond Washington politics. As a registered nurse and former healthcare advocate before her 2018 campaign, she joined many Democratic newcomers including veterans, educators, activists and business leaders.

"We need ordinary Americans stepping forward" to create "a clear contrast with these MAGA extremists' actions," she stated.

Historically, the president's party typically loses congressional seats during midterm elections following a White House victory. Trump, however, occupies the unusual position of testing this pattern during a second, non-consecutive presidency.

Neither party has disclosed its complete list of preferred candidates for targeted districts. Jack noted that his Oval Office discussions with Trump concentrate on identifying candidates who can both align with the White House agenda and win elections.

Jack highlighted former Maine Governor Paul LePage as an exemplary candidate. LePage is campaigning in a Republican-leaning district where Democrats must replace Representative Jared Golden, another 2018 Democratic winner who recently announced his retirement.

Trump's current involvement differs significantly from 2017, when he maintained less connection with House leadership, including then-Speaker Paul Ryan, regarding midterm campaign specifics. Jack, who began his Trump association by coordinating delegate outreach before the 2016 convention, served as White House deputy political director during that period, receiving a promotion to political director after the 2018 defeats.

Jack continued advising the president, particularly regarding endorsements, between Trump's 2021 White House departure and Jack's own 2024 congressional campaign. He described Trump as deeply engaged in recruitment decisions and receptive to endorsement recommendations following those 2018 losses.

Measuring Trump loyalty won't always be straightforward, especially among first-time candidates.

Nevertheless, Jack believes Republicans have strong options. He referenced Albuquerque, New Mexico, where Republicans might face a competitive primary between Jose Orozco, a former Drug Enforcement Administration contractor, and Greg Cunningham, a former Marine and police officer.

"Both have truly inspiring stories," Jack remarked.

Orozco has asked voters to "give President Trump an ally in Congress," while Cunningham didn't emphasize Trump during his campaign launch.

Underwood explained that Democrats are implementing the same district-by-district strategy that succeeded in 2018. She noted that recruitment during the Trump era more often involves guiding self-motivated candidates rather than persuading reluctant individuals to enter politics.

The significant presence of women and combat veterans among her first-term colleagues, Underwood explained, wasn't a top-down strategy but resulted from candidates viewing Trump and Republicans as threats to effective governance and democracy.

Underwood, who became the youngest Black congresswoman in history when elected at age 32 in 2018, recalled that Republican attempts to repeal the Affordable Care Act motivated her candidacy, given her nursing background. She shares these experiences with recruits, helping them connect their backgrounds and ideas to congressional responsibilities.

She regularly addresses questions about serving during an era of political violence and balancing candidate or congressional duties, particularly from recruits with children.

National security continues attracting Democratic candidates. Former Marine JoAnna Mendoza is campaigning for a predominantly rural southern Arizona seat, while former Representative Elaine Luria, another 2018 colleague and former naval officer, is running again in Virginia after losing her seat in 2022. Luria was a leading House investigator of the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot.

Underwood sees clear similarities to 2018, when successful Democratic candidates included Mikie Sherrill, a former Navy helicopter pilot now New Jersey's governor-elect; Jason Crow, a former Army Ranger who co-chairs recruitment efforts; and Virginia Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA officer.

Democrats also emphasize finding candidates who reflect their districts' cultural characteristics, capable of withstanding Republican claims that national Democrats are disconnected from many voters.

In South Texas, for example, the leading potential Democratic challenger is Tejano music star Bobby Pulido. The five-time Latin Grammy nominee has criticized progressive Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for using "Latinx" instead of "Latino" or "Latina."

Mid-decade redistricting, primarily in Republican-controlled states at Trump's urging, leaves the configuration of the 435 House districts uncertain. Despite these changes, Democrats have identified over three dozen Republican-held seats they consider competitive. Republicans counter by targeting approximately two dozen Democratic seats they believe can be flipped.

In the Southwest, Democrats are targeting all three Republican seats in Arizona, while Republicans aim for three Democratic seats in Nevada. From the Midwest to Philadelphia's suburbs, Democrats hope to flip two Iowa seats, two in Wisconsin, three in Michigan, three in Ohio, and four in Pennsylvania. Republicans are targeting four Democratic seats in New York.

Nearly all Democratic targets were within a 15-percentage point margin in 2024, many considerably closer. Democratic candidates in 2025 special elections typically achieved double-digit improvements compared to Trump's 2024 margins, including a recent special House election in Tennessee, where Democrats came within 9 points in a district Trump won by 22 points.

"We're seeing similar shifts to those preceding our 2018 victories," noted Meredith Kelly, a former top Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee official during Trump's first presidency. "Success requires combining that national environment with finding suitable candidates who match their districts and can capitalize on opportunities."