Venezuelan Opposition Leader Maria Corina Machado's Nobel Peace Prize Ceremony Shrouded in Uncertainty

Maria Corina Machado, awarded the Nobel Peace Prize on October 10, has become the center of uncertainty as Nobel officials in Oslo cancelled a scheduled press conference with her on Tuesday.

The Norwegian Nobel Institute expressed uncertainty about the Venezuelan opposition leader's whereabouts and whether she would personally attend the award ceremony.

Machado received the prestigious honor for her democratic advocacy in Venezuela, challenging President Nicolas Maduro's authoritarian rule that began in 2013.

Initially planned for 1:00 pm local time, the press conference was first delayed before being entirely cancelled, leaving many questions unanswered.

"Maria Corina Machado herself said how difficult it was to come to Norway. We hope she will attend the Nobel Prize award ceremony" on Wednesday, Nobel Institute spokesman Erik Aasheim told AFP.

Journalists had anticipated this would be Machado's first public appearance in 11 months, following intense speculation about her location in recent days.

The 58-year-old opposition figure was last seen publicly during a January 9 protest in Caracas against Maduro's third-term inauguration. She went into hiding in Venezuela in August 2024.

Machado has consistently maintained that Maduro fraudulently won the July 2024 election—an election she was prohibited from contesting. This claim has received widespread international support.

Venezuela's attorney general, Tarek William Saab, declared last month that Machado would be labeled a "fugitive" if she traveled to Norway for the Nobel ceremony.

"By being outside Venezuela and having numerous criminal investigations, she is considered a fugitive," Saab told AFP, adding allegations against her including "acts of conspiracy, incitement of hatred, terrorism".

Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello admitted Monday he was uncertain whether Machado would travel to Oslo for the event.

A journey to Norway would create complex questions regarding her potential return to Venezuela or ability to effectively lead opposition efforts from exile.

Georgetown University associate professor Michael Shifter observed that maintaining opposition momentum would be challenging regardless of Machado's location. "Under any scenario—whether Machado can or can't return to Venezuela—it will be very difficult to sustain momentum for the movement she inspired absent any progress in moving towards political change," he explained.

"To be sure, it will be hard for Machado to lead the opposition in exile. But it will not be easy for her to do so even based in the country (when) most Venezuelans are facing dire economic and humanitarian conditions and increased repression by the Maduro regime," Shifter added.

Despite these challenges, Machado's former campaign manager Magalli Meda asserted Tuesday that there was "no chance that Maria Corina will not return and stay in exile".

The Nobel ceremony remains scheduled for Wednesday at 1:00 pm at Oslo's City Hall.

Several Machado family members, including her mother, three sisters, and three children, have already arrived in Oslo for the event, though none have disclosed her location, with some claiming ignorance of her whereabouts.

Various Latin American leaders are attending the ceremony, including Argentina's President Javier Milei and Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, who contested the presidential election against Maduro.

Panama's President Jose Raul Mulino, spotted in Oslo Monday, expressed his support: "I came to congratulate the hero of democracy and the struggling Venezuelan people" and voiced hope for a "return to democracy in Venezuela as soon as possible".

A significant police presence has been deployed since Monday outside Oslo's Grand Hotel, the traditional lodging for Nobel Peace Prize recipients.

While many praise Machado for her democratic advocacy in Venezuela, critics have questioned her alliance with former U.S. President Donald Trump, to whom she dedicated her Nobel Prize.

The Oslo ceremony coincides with increased U.S. military presence in the Caribbean and recent deadly strikes against alleged drug smuggling vessels.

President Maduro contends that these U.S. operations—which Machado has supported as justified—actually aim to overthrow his government and control Venezuela's oil reserves.