Israel's Rafah Border Reopening Plan: Impact on Gaza's Humanitarian Crisis and Regional Tensions

Israel has announced plans to reopen the Rafah border crossing in the coming days, allowing Palestinians to exit Gaza, a potentially significant development for residents who have faced extreme difficulties leaving the territory throughout most of the war.

This announcement brings hope that thousands of sick and wounded Gazans might finally access much-needed medical care, as Gaza's healthcare system has been severely damaged during the two-year conflict, making advanced surgical procedures unavailable.

However, several complications exist. Israel stipulates that Palestinians wishing to leave must obtain security approval from both Israeli and Egyptian authorities, though the specific criteria remain unclear.

A major point of contention has emerged: Israel maintains that until all hostages taken during the October 7, 2023 attack are returned, Palestinians will only be permitted to exit Gaza, not enter.

Egypt, conversely, insists on immediately opening the crossing in both directions to allow Palestinians in Egypt to return to Gaza. This position stems from Egypt's strong opposition to permanently resettling Palestinian refugees within its borders.

Before the conflict, Rafah served as a bustling checkpoint for people and goods moving between Egypt and Gaza. While Gaza has four other border crossings, these connect with Israel, making Rafah the only gateway linking Gaza to another country.

Following the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel in 2023, which resulted in approximately 1,200 deaths and 251 hostages, Egypt tightened restrictions at Rafah. After Israel seized control of the Gaza side in May 2024 during its offensive, which has killed more than 70,100 Palestinians according to Gaza's Health Ministry, the crossing was closed except for rare medical evacuations.

The Health Ministry, operating under the Hamas-run government, does not differentiate between militants and civilians but reports that roughly half the casualties were women and children. The ministry, staffed by medical professionals, maintains detailed records considered generally reliable by international observers.

A reopened Rafah crossing would facilitate medical treatment access for Gazans, enable international travel, and allow family visits to Egypt. The World Health Organization estimates over 16,500 sick and wounded individuals need to leave Gaza for medical care.

The reopening would also benefit Gaza's devastated economy by enabling Palestinian merchants to market their products beyond the territory's borders.

An Israeli official, speaking anonymously about operational plans, indicated that the European Union mission supervising the crossing needs to finalize logistics before reopening. The crossing, heavily damaged during the war, likely requires repairs. The dispute between Israel and Egypt regarding Palestinian entry into Gaza may further delay the opening.

Egypt's State Information Service, citing an unnamed Egyptian official, stated that if an agreement is reached, the crossing will operate in both directions, in accordance with a ceasefire plan proposed by U.S. President Donald Trump.

Egypt opposes accepting Gaza refugees, as it already hosts tens of thousands of Palestinians among its migrant population of approximately 9 million people. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi has expressed concerns about the security implications of transferring large numbers of Palestinians to Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, which borders Gaza.

Egypt supports the establishment of a Palestinian state in the occupied West Bank, Gaza, and east Jerusalem, fearing that permanent displacement could undermine this possibility.

Israeli government spokesperson Shosh Bedrosian stated that entry into Gaza would not be permitted until Israel receives all remaining hostages. Prior to the most recent return of remains, two dead hostages were believed to be in Gaza – one Israeli and one Thai national. The recently returned remains have not yet been identified.