BJP's Uphill Battle in Tamil Nadu: Modi's Strategy for 2026 Elections

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's roadshow in Coimbatore today appears to function as the unofficial launch of the National Democratic Alliance's (NDA) 2026 campaign in Tamil Nadu. Beneath the ceremonial display, however, lies a complex electoral landscape that has shown little change despite the NDA's recent Bihar victory. Tamil Nadu remains one of the most challenging territories for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), with increasingly fragile alliance dynamics.

The most significant obstacle emerges from within the NDA coalition itself. The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), the BJP's main ally and formerly their gateway to political significance in the state, continues struggling with profound internal divisions. The removal of VK Sasikala, O Panneerselvam, and TTV Dhinakaran has fractured the party considerably. For the BJP, losing two of these leaders, both representing the influential Thevar community and previously part of the NDA, means sacrificing potential prevention of an AIADMK vote split. The recent dismissal of senior leader and western Tamil Nadu powerbroker KA Sengottaiyan introduces additional uncertainty in a region traditionally considered an AIADMK stronghold.

Following Jayalalithaa's passing, the AIADMK has suffered three consecutive electoral defeats – 2019, 2021, and 2024 – with two of these losses occurring while in partnership with the BJP, strengthening the perception that the national party acts as an electoral liability. The instability extends beyond the AIADMK. The Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), another NDA component, is experiencing serious conflict between founder Dr S Ramadoss and his son Dr Anbumani Ramadoss, potentially leading to a split or competing factions running against each other. The Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), formerly an ally, has yet to clearly establish its future direction.

Further complicating matters is actor Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), set to make its political debut in 2026. Vijay has consistently identified the BJP as his ideological adversary, eliminating any possibility of direct or indirect alliance. This effectively precludes any AIADMK-BJP-TVK collaboration. Some former NDA partners might explore arrangements with Vijay, who has indicated willingness to share political power – an appealing proposition for smaller political entities.

Coimbatore, where Modi is demonstrating the BJP's influence today, represents one of the few areas where the party maintains established support. Vanathi Srinivasan's 2021 victory over Kamal Haasan occurred here, but importantly, with AIADMK alliance backing.

The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), meanwhile, enters this political phase from a position of stability. Its alliance has remained solid through three successive electoral victories. The government is banking on its prominent welfare initiatives – monthly Rs 1,000 assistance for women, free bus transportation, and financial support for government-school college students – while highlighting its accelerated double-digit economic growth. Politically, the DMK continues challenging the BJP-led central government on issues fundamental to Tamil Nadu's identity and rights, including alleged financial discrimination, denial of NEET exemption, Hindi imposition, and delays concerning the Keeladi archaeological report. These themes resonate deeply in a state renowned for its strong linguistic and cultural positions.

Against this backdrop, Modi's Coimbatore roadshow holds significance not merely for motivating party workers but for indicating whether the BJP is prepared to adjust its approach in a state that has consistently remained electorally resistant. Tamil Nadu's political dynamics have historically rejected national narratives. Whether Modi modifies his messaging and engagement to align with the state's sensibilities will determine if today's event becomes the beginning of genuine momentum – or merely a symbolic display of strength in still-unfavorable territory.