The Unraveling Alliance: Why INDIA Bloc Partners Are Losing Faith in Congress Leadership

The continuous decline of the Indian National Congress resembles Delhi's pollution problem - seemingly insurmountable with no solution in sight and little effort being made to find one.

Following the Bihar electoral defeat, social media is circulating an estimate that Rahul Gandhi is now just five losses short of reaching a century of defeats since his political emergence in 2003. A widely shared map of India highlights all the state assembly elections lost under his leadership. The accompanying text states: "While many will call him a 9-to-5 blame game politician, Rahul Gandhi has now accumulated 95 electoral defeats in two decades, five short of a century. Is the attack on India's institutions a diversionary tactic by the silver-silver spoon scion?"

The Congress party began losing its absolute power back in 1989, when it suffered defeat in Tamil Nadu despite having 404 seats in the Lok Sabha. At that time, the party was struggling with the Bofors scandal fallout. Vishwanath Pratap Singh's victory in the Allahabad by-poll in June 1988 was followed by other setbacks, making the Tamil Nadu defeat particularly ominous in a Lok Sabha election year.

During those electoral setbacks, Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi had visited Harare, Zimbabwe. The late Dr. Rajendra Mathur, chief editor of Navbharat Times, wrote a memorable editorial playing on the Hindi meaning of 'Harare': "Harare se Harare-arey, kabhi toe jitarey!" ("Defeat after defeat - win sometime!"). One wonders how Dr. Mathur would react to Rahul Gandhi's current string of 95 defeats.

While celebrating the Bihar victory with BJP workers, Prime Minister Narendra Modi noted that in the six assembly polls held since the 2014 Lok Sabha election, the Congress won fewer seats combined than the BJP won in Bihar alone.

Rahul Gandhi's whereabouts on the day the Bihar results were announced remain unknown. Neither he nor Priyanka Vadra were seen at Shanti Van when Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge, Sonia Gandhi, and other senior leaders paid tribute to Jawaharlal Nehru on his 136th birth anniversary. On social media platform X, Rahul expressed surprise at the results, describing them as "unfair" and asserting that the elections were compromised from the beginning.

The Congress may establish a committee to investigate this fiasco or continue alleging "vote chori" (vote theft), a claim that seems to find little support even among allies. Many Congress members also appear unconvinced, noting the party's victories in Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, and Telangana.

Ironically, the INDIA bloc faced its lowest point in Patna, the very city where its foundation was laid when Nitish Kumar convened a meeting of 'like-minded parties' in March 2023. At that gathering, Arvind Kejriwal and his Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) had dominated proceedings. Despite initially walking out, AAP had successfully rallied other parties now in the INDIA bloc to oppose the Delhi Services Bill. The Congress's commitment was so strong that ailing former Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh made what would be his final Parliament appearance in a wheelchair to vote for a cause already lost.

However, within months, frustrated by the bloc's lack of cohesion, Nitish Kumar realigned with Modi, forming the winning combination in Bihar.

The INDIA bloc exists virtually without structure - no office, no coordination committee, and no declared convener. The Congress assumes leadership despite its poor electoral performance. The bloc's last meeting occurred on June 4.

Rahul Gandhi's campaign initiatives like caste survey, Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls (SIR), or 'vote chori' have never been discussed collectively within the alliance or even within his own party.

When CPI(M)'s Sitaram Yechury was alive, Rahul Gandhi was often seen sitting beside him during multi-party meetings. The current CPI(M) general secretary, M.A. Baby, has not received similar treatment, possibly because Wayanad - the constituency Rahul represented in 2019 and 2024 (now held by Priyanka Vadra) - is in Kerala. M.A. Baby is a key figure in Kerala's CPI(M), which opposes the Congress-led coalition there. During the Bihar elections, photographs consistently showed Rahul Gandhi alongside CPI(ML) leader Dipanker Bhattacharya.

Perhaps noting such preferences, PM Modi referred to Congress as "MMC" (Muslimwadi, Maowadi Congress) in his victory speech. Modi also suggested visible fissures within Congress ranks and hinted at another potential party split.

The contrasting approaches of the INDIA bloc and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) became evident after the Bihar election. Senior Congress leader Tariq Anwar, the Katihar MP who first won that seat in 1980, attributed the Bihar defeat to "lack of proper coordination and joint campaigning between Congress and the RJD."

In contrast, when BJP workers chanted "Phir ek baar BJP sarkar" at a victory celebration, PM Modi corrected them, declaring "Phir ek baar NDA sarkar."

A banner at Janata Dal (United) headquarters in Patna on the eve of the results has attracted media attention. Created by Ranjeet Sinha, it featured Nitish Kumar's portrait with the caption "Tiger abhi zinda hai" ("the Tiger is alive"). Sinha, a former Congress minister who joined JD(U) at its founding, was known for guarding the guesthouse where Indira Gandhi stayed during her visits to meet Jayprakash Narain and before her historic Belchi visit.

With workers possessing such "Tiger" spirit having departed the Congress one by one, the party now finds itself reduced to single-digit representation in both Uttar Pradesh and Bihar assemblies. Rahul Gandhi serves as Leader of Opposition due to Congress's 99 seats in the Lok Sabha, though the party has failed to reach triple digits since 2014.

Reports suggest that INDIA bloc parties are growing uncomfortable with Gandhi's approach and have distanced themselves from his actions multiple times. Supriya Sule of Sharad Pawar's NCP broke ranks by joining the Joint Parliamentary Committee on bills proposing to temporarily remove detained top government officials. Other alliance members - Trinamool Congress, Samajwadi Party, AAP, and Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena, which collectively hold 77 seats - often act independently rather than following Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi's lead.

(The author is a senior journalist and former editor)