Shifting Political Allegiance: How Muslim Voters Reshaped Bihar's Electoral Landscape

The four Bihar constituencies with the highest Muslim population concentration displayed a split allegiance between the NDA and Mahagathbandhan, partially deviating from their traditional support for the non-NDA alliance during election periods.

Regarding how Muslim-dominated regions voted this year, Araria saw Congress' Abidur Rahman securing a decisive lead exceeding 86,000 votes as of 6:30 pm. In Katihar, BJP's Tarkishore Prasad emerged victorious. Kishanganj witnessed Congress' Mohammed Qamrul Hoda winning with a margin of 12,000 votes. Meanwhile, in Purnea, BJP's Vijay Kumar Khemka claimed victory with an impressive margin surpassing 33,000 votes.

According to the 2023 caste-based survey data, Muslims constitute approximately 17.7 percent of Bihar's population. The community represents an estimated 47 percent of the population in the Seemanchal region, where they play a decisive electoral role. This region encompasses 24 Assembly constituencies, approximately 10 percent of the state's total seats.

The Seemanchal region, which borders West Bengal and Nepal, comprises Araria, Katihar, Kishanganj, and Purnea districts. Kishanganj has the highest Muslim population at 68 percent, followed by Katihar (44 percent), Araria (43 percent), and Purnia (38 percent). While religious and caste factors influence politics in this region, it also contends with poverty, inadequate development, and recurrent floods.

Historically, a large majority of Muslim votes in Bihar have traditionally supported Lalu Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), while Nitish Kumar's party typically attracted about 5 percent of Muslim votes. During the 2014 Lok Sabha election, when Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United) allied with Left parties, they secured 23.5 percent of Muslim votes. JDU contested the 2019 and 2024 Lok Sabha elections in partnership with the BJP, receiving 6 percent and 12 percent of Muslim votes, respectively.

In the 2015 Bihar Assembly election, JDU and RJD formed an alliance against the BJP, garnering 80 percent of the state's Muslim votes. Before the 2020 election, Nitish Kumar switched allegiances, resulting in just 5 percent Muslim votes. During the 2015 polls, JDU fielded seven Muslim candidates with five winning, while in 2020, it fielded eleven Muslim candidates with none securing victory. JDU's presence in Seemanchal diminished from seven MLAs after the 2015 polls to merely three in 2020.

The RJD-Congress Mahagathbandhan obtained 80 percent of Muslim votes in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls and 87 percent in the 2024 election. In Assembly elections, the JDU-RJD alliance received 80 percent of Muslim votes in 2015. When they contested separately in 2020, the RJD alliance secured 76 percent of Muslim votes.

Regarding Muslim representation in the Assembly, in 2010, the number of Muslim MLAs stood at 19. This figure increased to 24 in 2015 when JDU and RJD collaborated, before decreasing to 19 again in 2020 when they competed against each other. In the 2020 elections, eight out of 18 RJD Muslim candidates won, and four out of 12 Congress candidates secured victories. The remaining seven Muslim MLAs represented BSP, CPI-ML, and Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM. While four AIMIM MLAs later defected to RJD, the 2020 election demonstrated that Muslim voters were willing to support various political alternatives.