Amit Shah's Strategic Masterclass: How BJP Engineered NDA's Landslide Victory in Bihar Elections 2023

New Delhi:

On November 1, Amit Shah made a prediction.

He told NDTV's Editor-in-Chief, Rahul Kanwal, the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance will cruise to victory in the 2025 Bihar election. "The NDA will win 160 seats (and) form the government with two-thirds majority," he stated at NDTV's Bihar Power Play summit.

REACAP | "NDA Will Win 160 Seats, Will Get Two-Thirds Majority": Amit Shah

He reiterated his prediction a week later, this time telling NDTV's Politics Editor, Vasudha Venugopal, "The way people are cheering for us... I feel people of Bihar are with the NDA... we will go well beyond 160."

RECAP | NDA To Retain Bihar With Over 160 Seats: Amit Shah To NDTV

And on November 14, that prediction became reality.

The NDA achieved a landslide victory over the opposition Mahagathbandhan.

The Mahagathbandhan, which fell 12 seats short of the majority mark five years ago, suffered a crushing defeat, securing only 48 seats as all its constituents - Tejashwi Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal, the Congress, a three-party Left front, and Mukesh Sahani's Vikassheel Insaan Party - underperformed.

READ | "Another Poll, Another Loss": BJP Mocks Rahul Gandhi After Bihar Rout

On counting day, as the NDA's substantial win became evident, sources revealed to NDTV details of Shah's behind-the-scenes efforts, highlighting nearly 72 hours of negotiations with disgruntled alliance leaders, particularly those denied tickets who threatened to join opposing parties.

'For two or three days', sources said, 'Shah did not hold events. He simply met with rebels to persuade them... he worked to keep the NDA united and ensured on-ground coordination between Chirag Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party and Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal United'.

Sources emphasized Shah's 'micro-planning' role in ensuring NDA unity.

This information perhaps reveals the true story of how the BJP engineered one of its most significant election victories in recent years, a win as important as securing control of Delhi from Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party in February or flipping Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan in 2023.

Tension persisted throughout the campaign period with Paswan negotiating firmly over seat allocation until the last minute. He insisted on a substantial number of seats, basing his demand on strong performance in last year's federal election - winning all five contested seats - rather than the 2020 Bihar poll.

Paswan reportedly sought to contest 40 seats and delivered a veiled warning to the BJP, telling NDTV "I am like salt on vegetables... I can affect 20,000 to 25,000 votes in every constituency".

NDTV Exclusive | "Am Like Salt On Vegetables': Paswan's Bihar Warning For BJP

The caveat, however, was always his desire to remain within the NDA, a commitment underscored by his effusive praise for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Those 'threats' were downplayed by the BJP; party sources characterized the positioning as meant to appease LJP hardliners.

Eventually, Paswan agreed to 28 seats.

Sources have highlighted Shah's crucial role in negotiating this agreement, which in retrospect proved critical.

READ | Rise Of The Young Gun: Chirag Paswan's Stellar Show In Bihar

The LJP is positioned to win 21 seats in this election, a result that reinforces the BJP-led alliance's dominance. Had the BJP lost these seats (and the associated 5.3 percent vote share), its margin of victory would have been considerably smaller, potentially creating instability in the future.

Additionally, though not widely discussed, Amit Shah would have also managed relations with the JDU and Nitish Kumar, who have maintained strained ties with the LJP and Chirag Paswan since the 2020 election.

In that election, the LJP contested independently but with tacit BJP support, ultimately cutting into Janata Dal votes. This led to JDU losing its 'big brother' status to its larger ally, a development that left JDU leaders (including Nitish Kumar) discontented.

Managing Paswan proved crucial because the JDU wasn't alone in opposing the LJP's expanded role. Jitan Manjhi's Hindustan Awam Morcha also criticized the LJP leader's push for more seats, leading opposition parties to speculate about potential 'rifts' within the NDA.

That speculation has now clearly been put to rest.

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