The Global Impact of US Nuclear Testing Resumption: Destabilizing the Nuclear Order

US President Donald Trump's recent announcement to resume nuclear testing aims to strengthen the US deterrence posture against emerging threats. Although the US later clarified it was not planning nuclear explosions, the Trump administration's nuclear policy has ranged from proposing arms reduction involving the US, China, and Russia to now considering resumed testing. This development comes amid a new nuclear age shaped by intensifying major power competition.

With Russia and China modernizing their nuclear arsenals, the US now confronts two peer nuclear rivals. North Korea has conducted six nuclear tests since 2006. Russia has threatened "reciprocal measures," while China urges the US to maintain the testing moratorium for global stability. The US-established nuclear order that has prevailed since World War II faces unprecedented pressure.

Deterrence, arms control, and non-proliferation constitute the three foundational pillars of nuclear order. The Ukraine conflict has severely damaged US-Russia relations and seemingly ended arms control cooperation. Nuclear status quo challengers like Iran and North Korea, along with US allies, appear increasingly motivated to pursue nuclear capabilities.

This creates significant challenges for US policymakers attempting to reassure allies while upholding non-proliferation standards. The geopolitical environment heavily influences nuclear dynamics in the US-China-Russia triangle, resulting in a tripolar nuclear order where both Russia and China have indicated willingness toward nuclear warfighting scenarios.

The US intention to resume nuclear testing amid Russian and Chinese arsenal modernization may aim to reinforce deterrence but could undermine major power stability—a core objective of the global nuclear order. Even considering nuclear testing renewal discourages states from maintaining stability and shifts the international system from potential cooperation to zero-sum competition.

The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) of 1996, though never entering into force, would likely become the first casualty. Despite never becoming legally binding, the CTBT supported the Non-Proliferation Treaty's core objectives for decades. Russia de-ratified the CTBT in 2023 during the Ukraine war, while the US and China never ratified it initially. Trump's move might signal to China and Russia the need for cooperative arms reduction in this new nuclear age, but its perception remains uncertain in today's contested geopolitical landscape.

Regionally, the China-India-Pakistan nuclear triangle represents the most significant aspect of the emerging nuclear environment. China's expanding arsenal creates concern, and any testing would place unprecedented pressure on New Delhi's security. India-China relations deteriorated following the 2020 Galwan crisis, resulting in reduced trust and engagement. If China resumes testing, India may need to reconsider its position on nuclear testing.

Following Operation Sindoor, Pakistan's continued testing of potential dual-use delivery systems presents another threat to New Delhi. Neither India nor Pakistan has ratified the CTBT, though both maintain unilateral testing moratoriums. India's decision-making must balance security threats against diplomatic considerations, including its responsible nuclear power image and its Nuclear Suppliers' Group waiver enabling civilian nuclear trade. Pakistan faces constraints from limited resources and questionable deterrence value given its tactical nuclear weapon posture against India.

China's developing capabilities aim to integrate conventional and nuclear warfare domains. Russia has tested the nuclear-powered Burevestnik intercontinental cruise missile and the Poseidon nuclear-powered underwater vehicle. The US move toward resumed testing pushes deterrence and stability concepts to their limits, making the US-China-Russia tripolar strategic stability increasingly volatile.

The regional nuclear order, particularly the China-India-Pakistan rivalry, will face significant shifts. India must balance its no-first-use policy while maintaining credible deterrence. The concept of resumed nuclear testing will challenge deterrence durability and mutual stability in an increasingly volatile political environment. It has already created tremendous uncertainty amid existing disorder and will test the resilience of the global nuclear order.

(Harsh V Pant is Vice President, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi. Rahul Rawat is a Research Associate at ORF.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the authors