Bihar's Record Voter Turnout: Historical Patterns Suggest Potential Political Shift Despite NDA's Projected Victory

The voter turnout in Bihar this year reached an unprecedented 66.91%, a significant increase from 57.29% in 2020.

While most exit polls predict a comfortable majority for the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Bihar, with one forecast suggesting they could secure between 150 and 170 seats out of 243, a historical pattern regarding increased voter participation may give the alliance reason for concern.

Bihar has witnessed an overall voter turnout of 66.91%, establishing a new record in its electoral history. The first phase saw 65.08% participation, a record in itself, which was subsequently surpassed by the second phase with 68.76%. Compared to the 2020 Assembly elections, the overall turnout has increased by 9.62 percentage points from the previous 57.29%.

Historical election data reveals a concerning pattern for incumbent governments: Bihar has experienced government changes three times when voter turnout increased by more than five percentage points.

During the 1967 elections, voter participation rose from 44.5% in 1962 to 51.5% - a 7 percentage point increase - resulting in the Congress government's defeat. That year, non-Congress parties successfully formed a coalition government.

Similarly, in the 1980 elections, voter turnout reached 57.3%, compared to 50.5% in 1977. This 6.8% increase facilitated another transfer of power.

This pattern emerged again in 1990. Voter turnout in 1985 was 56.3%, which climbed to 62% - a 5.7 percentage point increase. Consequently, Congress lost power, replaced by the Janata Dal.

In this year's elections, which concluded on Tuesday, several Assembly constituencies experienced exceptionally high voter turnout, while others showed notably low participation. In the second phase, Pranpur (Katihar) recorded the highest turnout at 81.02%, while Kumhrar (Patna) had the lowest at 39.57%.

10 Assembly constituencies with the highest voter turnout in the second phase:

Pranpur (Katihar) 81.02%

Thakurganj (Kishanganj) 80.51%

Kadwa (Katihar) 79.95%

Kishanganj (Kishanganj) 79.62%

Kochadhaman (Kishanganj) 79.15%

Barari (Katihar) 78.5%

Balrampur (Katihar) 78.1%

Bahadurganj (Kishanganj) 78.05%

Kasba (Purnia) 77.8%

Rupauli (Purnia) 77.58%

10 Assembly constituencies with the lowest voter turnout in the second phase:

Kumhrar Patna 39.57%

Digha (Patna) 41.5%

Biharsharif (Nalanda) 55.09%

Shahpur (Bhojpur) 57.11%

Darauli (Siwan) 57%

Ziradei (Siwan) 57.17%

Ekma (Saran) 58.35%

Danapur (Patna) 58.52%

Chapra (Saran) 58.61%

Daraunda (Siwan) 58.9%

Women's Turnout Exceeded Men's

According to the Election Commission, women's participation surpassed men's in both election phases. The aggregate voter turnout across Bihar's 243 constituencies was 66.9%, with 62.8% of male voters and 71.6% of female voters exercising their franchise.