Bihar Election 2025: Exit Polls Predict Nitish Kumar's Resurgence and NDA Victory

New Delhi:

In Bihar's 2020 election, the Bharatiya Janata Party accomplished something unprecedented in twenty years – surpassing Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal United in Assembly election results.

The Matrize exit poll released Tuesday evening, shortly after the final phase of voting concluded, suggests a return to previous patterns in the 2025 edition. The data indicates a slight but definite advantage for Nitish Kumar's party – projecting 67-75 seats compared to the BJP's 65-73.

According to Matrize, the BJP-led ruling alliance appears headed for a substantial victory, with predictions of 147-167 seats, while the opposition Mahagathbandhan trails significantly at 70-90 seats. Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj appears to have made little impact in its electoral debut. The comprehensive poll of exit polls similarly forecasts a decisive NDA victory.

It's worth noting that in 2000, Nitish Kumar led the Samata Party rather than the JDU, and Bihar remained undivided before Jharkhand's creation from its southern districts. Nevertheless, with Nitish Kumar at the helm and the BJP under Sushil Kumar Modi, the BJP secured 67 seats to SAP's 34.

The 2020 election outcome – with BJP winning 74 seats versus JDU's 43 – delivered a significant upset, placing Nitish in a weaker negotiating position regarding government formation details. Speculation arose that the JDU leader, who had already served an extended tenure as Bihar's Chief Minister, might finally step aside.

Predictions suggested he would need to accept the status of 'little brother' in the alliance. Despite this, the seasoned politician maintained his position, though he later claimed that "serious pressure" had influenced his decision to remain Chief Minister: "I was ready for a Chief Minister from the BJP since they had more MLAs, but there was serious pressure on me..."

Now, however, he appears positioned to reclaim the 'big brother' status, confounding political analysts and opposition figures who had written off the 74-year-old and predicted his political demise.

If these projections prove accurate, Nitish Kumar will not only make a triumphant return to the apex of Bihar's political hierarchy but will also extend his already remarkable nearly two-decade tenure as chief minister. This could potentially position him to become the longest-serving chief minister in history by the end of his next term.

The relationship between Nitish Kumar and the BJP has been notably complex over the years.

Since 2013, the JDU leader has switched allegiance between the saffron party and his frenemy Rashtriya Janata Dal five times, with each transition representing a calculated strategic maneuver to either obtain or maintain power. The most recent shift occurred amid significant political drama in January last year.

Despite his instrumental role in forming the INDIA bloc and expecting appropriate recognition, Nitish Kumar became displeased upon discovering the Congress assuming leadership and other parties, including Bengal's ruling Trinamool Congress, competing for influence before the Lok Sabha election.

Consequently, he departed from the Mahagathbandhan and rejoined the National Democratic Alliance, though outcomes fell short of his likely expectations; the JDU lost four seats (and the BJP five) to a reinvigorated opposition alliance led by Tejashwi Yadav.

To have potentially reversed these results in less than two years (assuming exit poll projections hold) represents a remarkable achievement for Nitish Kumar.