Exit Polls Predict Chirag Paswan's LJP(RV) Emerging as Key Player in Bihar Assembly Elections

Patna:

According to exit polls, Chirag Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) is expected to make a significant impact in Bihar this election season. Projections suggest that his party might secure 11 of the 29 seats it contested. Though representing less than half of their contested seats, this outcome could substantially boost the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) tally, which an aggregate of nine exit polls predicts could reach 147 - approximately 60 percent of Bihar's 243 assembly seats.

The LJP's performance in 2020 was notably different, when the party ran independently and secured just one seat out of 137 contested, leading political analysts to dismiss Paswan's influence. However, that campaign successfully diminished Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal United's strength, reducing their seats from 71 in 2015 to merely 43.

While exit polls aren't always accurate, the LJP(RV) remains hopeful of securing enough seats to justify their demand for the deputy chief minister position under Nitish Kumar.

Chirag Paswan previously indicated that if the NDA performs well, his party would claim the most prominent position after the Chief Minister. Exit polls have already positioned the 43-year-old "Yuva Bihari" as the third choice for Bihar's Chief Minister, behind Rashtriya Janata Dal's Tejashwi Yadav, who narrowly leads Nitish Kumar by just two percentage points.

The LJP(RV) leader has firmly committed to remaining with the NDA regardless of election results, stating in a recent interview, "I love the Prime Minister too much."

Speculation has circulated that the BJP is preparing a successor to 74-year-old Nitish Kumar, with the LJP chief considered a leading candidate. This theory gained traction following the unprecedented allocation of 29 seats to Paswan's party by the BJP. However, the NDA later confirmed that Kumar would continue in the leadership role for this term, disappointing Paswan supporters.

The Lok Janshakti Party, established in 2000, initially aligned with the National Democratic Alliance during its central government tenure. Following the Godhra riots, it separated from the NDA in 2002 and joined the UPA in 2004, where then-party leader Ram Vilas Paswan held significant ministerial positions.

Ram Vilas Paswan was widely regarded as a political forecaster with exceptional ability to predict shifting political trends. In 2014, he rejoined the NDA and managed key portfolios in Prime Minister Narendra Modi's cabinet.

Following his death, the LJP divided, but Chirag Paswan, leading the Ram Vilas faction, has emerged prominently, demonstrating political astuteness reminiscent of his father.