Bihar Election 2025: BJP Projected to Become Single Largest Party According to Exit Polls

Patna:

According to exit polls, Bihar's 2025 assembly election could trigger a significant political realignment, particularly benefiting the BJP. Projections suggest the BJP may emerge as the single largest party in the state, solidifying its position as the dominant force within the NDA coalition.

Exit polls predict the BJP will secure between 67 and 70 seats, substantially outperforming Lalu Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), which is projected to win 56-69 seats. This would represent a notable shift, as the RJD had previously held the distinction of being Bihar's single largest party after the 2020 elections.

While the BJP's projected performance would establish it as the top-performing party, it would still fall short of the RJD's previous achievement of 75 seats in 2020. However, the BJP's anticipated seat count would likely exceed Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal United (JD(U)), which is expected to secure between 58 and 71 seats.

Average projections across exit polls indicate 69 seats for the BJP, 62 for JD(U), and 63 for the RJD.

Whether becoming the single largest party will enhance the BJP's already substantial influence remains uncertain. The party has effectively controlled state politics since 2020, when Chirag Paswan's decision to contest independently undermined JD(U)'s electoral performance, reducing the previously senior alliance partner to just 43 seats.

It's worth noting that exit polls have historically demonstrated variable accuracy, with Bihar's electoral outcomes frequently defying predictions.

In the current scenario, nine different exit polls—including those conducted by Dainik Bhaskar, Matrize, People's Insight, Chanakya Strategies, and People's Pulse—have forecasted an NDA victory, with projected seat totals ranging from 130 to 167.

These same polls predict the opposition Mahagathbandhan alliance will secure between 73 and 108 seats.

The consolidated poll of exit polls—representing the average of all available data—indicates the ruling NDA will win approximately 147 seats, while the Grand Alliance will secure around 90 seats.