Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj: The Potential Game-Changer in Bihar Assembly Elections

The BJP's Ravi Shankar Prasad has dismissed Prashant Kishor's political efforts, stating he is merely creating "noise" while the NDA is poised for a decisive majority in Bihar.

Bihar's political dynamics have undergone a significant transformation with the entrance of poll strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor and his Jan Suraaj party. In an unprecedented move, this new political entity has fielded candidates across all 243 constituencies in the Bihar Assembly elections, reinforcing Kishor's assertion that he aims to establish a viable alternative to the long-standing dominance of Lalu Yadav and Nitish Kumar-led coalitions.

While Kishor's influence is undeniable, the critical question remains: Could Jan Suraaj emerge as the decisive factor in Bihar's electoral landscape? What degree of impact will this new party actually have?

NDTV CEO and Editor-in-Chief Rahul Kanwal explored this question during a special election segment titled "Bihar Battleground." The program featured insights from psephologists, political analysts, and party leaders, who carefully examined the potential implications of the "Kishor factor" through detailed data analysis.

Statistical evidence indicates that a party needs approximately 8% of the vote share in Bihar to achieve meaningful seat conversion. A 15% vote share could potentially translate to 25 or more seats for Jan Suraaj, while 18% could yield 40 or more seats. Should Jan Suraaj secure 18% of votes, Kishor's impact would be substantial, representing over 15% of Bihar's 243 Assembly seats.

Scenario analysis reveals that if Kishor captures 12% of the vote share—with only 20% drawn from the NDA and 80% from the Mahagathbandhan—the JDU-BJP coalition would secure 199 seats based on 2020 performance patterns, while the RJD-Congress alliance would be reduced to merely 30 seats.

Conversely, if the same 12% vote share draws 80% from the NDA and only 20% from the Mahagathbandhan, the electoral outcome shifts dramatically. In this scenario, the RJD-Congress alliance would lead with 119 seats—just three short of the majority threshold—while the NDA would secure 110 seats.

These projections clearly demonstrate that a larger vote share for Jan Suraaj could fundamentally alter the political trajectory for both major alliances.

Addressing these projections, senior BJP leader Ravi Shankar Prasad characterized Kishor's activities as mere "noise" that ultimately benefits the NDA coalition.

"For over 25 years, Bihar elections have been divided between forces aligned with Lalu Yadav and the Nitish Kumar-NDA coalition. While Prashant Kishor is generating considerable attention, which is healthy for democracy, the ground situation remains settled. Our internal assessments indicate the NDA will secure a convincing majority. Nitish Kumar appears to be benefiting from public sympathy, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi's influence remains significant. Their combined vision for Bihar's development resonates strongly with voters," Prasad stated.

Photo Credit: ANI

"The more visibility Prashant Kishor gains, the clearer the electoral choices become. His campaign necessarily highlights the 'jungle raj' and corruption that characterized Lalu Yadav's administration. Despite two decades in power, Nitish Kumar has maintained his simplicity and remains untainted by scandal. Common citizens acknowledge, 'Nitishwa theeke hai, theek kaam kare hai' (Nitish Kumar has performed admirably).

Prasad added that although younger Biharis have only experienced Nitish Kumar's chief ministership and may not have direct knowledge of the alleged "jungle raj" during Lalu Yadav's tenure, they have learned about this period from family accounts and will vote accordingly.

Countering the "noise" characterization, Jan Suraaj leader Pawan Varma suggested that what the BJP perceives as noise is actually the beginnings of a quiet revolution.

Photo Credit: ANI

"Jan Suraaj isn't merely disrupting the existing political order; it represents a genuine alternative. Our party enjoys significant support among Bihar's youth—who constitute 58% of the population under age 35. Furthermore, approximately 28% of Bihar's electorate has consistently refrained from voting for either major coalition. If Jan Suraaj manages to attract just 10% of voters from both the NDA and Mahagathbandhan, our total vote share could potentially reach around 40%," Varma explained.

Congress leader Sachin Pilot, who previously served as Rajasthan's deputy chief minister, acknowledged Kishor's extensive outreach efforts but noted that such campaigning is standard practice for political leaders.

"Bihar presents a complex political landscape with multiple contesting parties. The fundamental electoral contest remains between the Mahagathbandhan and NDA. While I won't dismiss any political entity, historically, third alternatives have attracted significant votes—this isn't unprecedented. Citizens desire change, and the Mahagathbandhan represents the most viable path forward. Young voters particularly seek a credible alternative offering employment opportunities, which we've specifically addressed in our manifesto and commitments," Pilot remarked.

Election analyst Amitabh Tiwari observed that parties outside the NDA and Mahagathbandhan already command a substantial vote share in Bihar. He suggested that Prashant Kishor is emerging as the preferred chief ministerial candidate among these "other" parties, which means his influence may impact smaller parties more significantly than the two major coalitions.

Tiwari noted that while Kishor is gaining traction among educated youth, the middle class, and certain economically disadvantaged communities, he is unlikely to achieve electoral victory. Instead, Kishor may function as a disruptive force similar to the LJP's role in the 2020 elections.

"In the 2020 elections, 83 constituencies were decided by margins of 5% or less. The NDA won 37 of these seats, the Mahagathbandhan claimed 38, and other parties secured 7. If Kishor's Jan Suraaj captures 5% or more of the vote share in these closely contested seats, it could significantly impact both major coalitions. The stronger Jan Suraaj performs, the more competitive the election becomes; conversely, weaker performance by Kishor's party would likely result in a more decisive outcome favoring one coalition," the analyst concluded.