Trump's Strategic Pivot to Pakistan: Implications for India and Regional Security

The recent overtures between the US and Pakistan, along with the Saudi-Pakistan defense agreement, present significant implications for India's strategic calculations.

President Trump's inclination toward Pakistan remains puzzling. Some speculate it stems from his disappointment over not receiving credit for mediating peace between India and Pakistan—recognition he believed might earn him the Nobel Peace Prize he covets. Pakistan's nomination of Trump for this prestigious award appears to have successfully appealed to his ego.

Trump's extraordinary relationship with Pakistan's Army Chief Asif Munir raises questions. The unprecedented lunch invitation to the White House and consistent public praise for Munir—often at the expense of Pakistan's Prime Minister's standing—suggests Trump has specific plans requiring the military leader's cooperation. Was Trump displeased by India's military engagement with Pakistan that resulted in Pakistani casualties, potentially disrupting his agenda?

Trump's interest might be commercially motivated through cryptocurrency arrangements with Pakistan that reportedly benefited his associates. Additionally, Munir presented critical materials deals similar to those Trump has secured with other nations.

From a regional perspective, Trump may have envisioned Pakistan participating in Saudi Arabian resource exploration projects or playing a role in Gaza stabilization efforts following a peace agreement. There might even be calculations about eventually incorporating Pakistan into the Abraham Accords.

The US has delivered new AMRAAM missiles for Pakistan's F16 fleet. Trump consistently mentions India and Pakistan, Modi and Munir, in the same context—a verbal association that elevates Pakistan while diminishing India. This pattern reflects his desire to mediate between these neighboring countries.

Trump has also expressed interest in mediating between Pakistan and Afghanistan, potentially to strengthen Pakistan's regional position. Some speculate whether successful mediation might enable American reacquisition of the Bagram base.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently noted opportunities to enhance strategic ties with Pakistan, which already holds Major non-NATO Ally status. This raises questions about potential efforts to reestablish strategic balance in the subcontinent—an objective the US largely abandoned following developments in India-US relations.

Rubio maintains that improved US-Pakistan relations won't compromise friendship with India, a familiar diplomatic stance used to alleviate Indian concerns. He praised India's diplomatic maturity while making curious references to India's relationships with countries that the US lacks diplomatic ties with.

The contradiction lies in Pakistan's history of involvement in terrorist activities against American interests and supporting the Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan, which resulted in numerous US military casualties. Many would welcome more mature American diplomacy toward India under Trump's administration.

US sanctions against Chabahar port (despite a temporary six-month waiver) strategically favor Pakistan by impeding India's access to Afghanistan, protecting Gwadar's position, and inadvertently facilitating China's strategic expansion into the Indian Ocean through Pakistan.

Pakistan has historically maintained close ties with Gulf nations, particularly Saudi Arabia. Islamic solidarity has been the foundation of these relationships. In the past, Saudi Arabia requested Pakistani military units on Saudi soil for royal security. Many believe Saudi Arabia even funded Pakistan's nuclear program. Former Pakistan Army Chief Raheel Sharif was appointed to lead the Saudi-initiated Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition in early 2017, tasked with uniting Muslim countries against extremist ideologies.

Given this background, the announcement of a Saudi-Pakistan defense agreement isn't entirely unexpected. India had been aware of ongoing discussions on this matter. Israel's attack on Doha despite Qatar hosting the largest US base in the region seemingly provided the opportunity to unveil this agreement. US approval for this defense pact could be part of strengthening Pakistan's regional role within the framework of expanded strategic relations mentioned by Rubio.

Pakistan's credentials for unifying Muslim nations against extremism remain questionable given its domestic radical jihadi groups, internationally designated terrorists, support for the Taliban in Afghanistan, and ongoing conflicts with Tehreek-i-Taliban and Afghan Taliban forces. Pakistan has also experienced clashes with Iran over cross-border terrorist activities.

Saudi officials recognize that Pakistan previously attempted to form an Islamic conservative front with Turkey and Malaysia in response to Saudi Arabia's and UAE's de-radicalization initiatives. These misunderstandings appear resolved now, suggesting that Raheel Sharif's appointment primarily serves as cover for Saudi reliance on Pakistan's military for internal security.

The announcement of the Saudi-Pakistan Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement in September 2025 was somewhat anticipated, though India knew discussions were underway. The agreement's collective defense clause—stating an attack on one constitutes an attack on both—raised concerns, particularly following India's Operation Sindoor against Pakistan. The pact includes joint military training, intelligence sharing, defense production, and deploying approximately 25,000 Pakistani soldiers in Saudi Arabia in exchange for substantial Saudi investment.

India has successfully strengthened ties with Gulf monarchies in recent years. Relations with Saudi Arabia have particularly improved under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, establishing a strategic partnership with high-level visits including military exchanges. Defense cooperation has advanced through army and naval exercises. Saudi Arabia supplies significant crude oil to India, hosts 2.7 million Indian expatriates, and maintains $43 billion in bilateral trade (2023-24). Saudi Arabia is also part of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor.

India immediately expressed concerns about the Saudi-Pakistan defense agreement, indicating it would evaluate implications for national security and regional stability. India cautioned Riyadh to consider mutual interests and sensitivities while firmly asserting its commitment to protecting national interests and ensuring comprehensive security.

India doesn't anticipate Saudi Arabian military intervention against India in potential India-Pakistan conflicts, as this would contradict Saudi Arabia's interests given the extent of bilateral ties and large Indian expatriate population. India's primary concern is that Saudi Arabia might financially support Pakistan's weapons acquisition from the US or China, particularly to address air defense vulnerabilities exposed during recent confrontations with India.

India maintains flourishing relationships with UAE, traditional close ties with Oman, and is cultivating relations with Qatar, its largest LNG supplier. Despite the Pakistan defense pact, India will continue expanding relations with Saudi Arabia given its central role among Gulf states, connection to India's Muslim population as custodian of Islam's holy sites, significant Indian expatriate presence, and importance as an oil supplier.

The India-Middle East-Europe Trade corridor (IMET), currently stalled due to the Gaza conflict's impact on the Abraham Accords, contains extensive connectivity elements that could enhance trade and relations between India, Gulf countries, and Europe. The Saudi-Pakistan defense agreement has limited relevance to this initiative.

However, the pact does elevate Pakistan's regional profile and complicates India's efforts to highlight Pakistan's terrorist connections that triggered the Pahalgam attack and Operation Sindoor.

Claims that India attempts to "isolate" Pakistan diplomatically are misguided. This would be impossible given Pakistan's close relationship with China, membership in the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (which it uses for anti-India messaging), status as a Major non-NATO US Ally, connections to the UK establishment, ties with Turkey, participation in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, current UN Security Council membership, contributions to UN peacekeeping, and other international affiliations. Instead, India has worked to isolate Pakistan specifically on terrorism issues by highlighting its state policy of terrorism involvement. India has achieved some success in this area, as evidenced by the lack of international criticism following India's military response to the Pahalgam incident, suggesting tacit acknowledgment of Pakistan's culpability.