Jammu and Kashmir's First Rajya Sabha Elections Since Becoming Union Territory: National Conference and BJP in Key Contest

The Jammu and Kashmir Assembly comprises 88 MLAs, with the National Conference-led ruling coalition holding 54 seats.

Friday marks the first Rajya Sabha elections since Jammu and Kashmir was reduced to Union territory status. Political analysts anticipate the ruling National Conference (NC) securing three seats while the BJP may claim one, assuming their strategies remain effective.

The elections for the four Rajya Sabha seats have been organized under three separate notifications.

In one seat, NC's Chowdhury Mohammed Ramzan faces a direct challenge from BJP's Ali Mohammed Mir.

For the second seat, Sajjad Kitchloo of the NC will compete against BJP's Rakesh Mahajan.

The third notification covers a contest for two seats with NC fielding party treasurer G S Oberoi (also known as Shammi Oberoi) and Imran Nabi Dar against BJP's Sat Sharma.

The National Conference issued a whip on Thursday requiring all its MLAs to be present and vote for the party's candidates.

Based on numerical strength, the NC with its 41 members, supported by six Congress MLAs, one CPM MLA, and six Independents, appears likely to secure victory in three seats.

The competition for the final seat remains extremely close.

The BJP, with 28 Assembly members, has strategically nominated its Jammu and Kashmir unit chief Sat Sharma in the third notification.

Sharma gained a significant advantage after Sajad Gani Lone's Jammu and Kashmir People's Conference (JKPC), formerly allied with the BJP-PDP government, announced its abstention from the Rajya Sabha elections.

Chief Minister Omar Abdullah expressed confidence on Thursday that his party would win all four seats, though he likely recognizes the need for every non-BJP vote to support NC candidates.

Congress legislators were notably absent from a crucial meeting of allies called by the NC on Wednesday, just two days before the Rajya Sabha polls.

Abdullah downplayed the Congress absence, explaining that each party follows its own procedures.

"Congress has its own process, different from ours. Their leadership must await signals from their high command, while we make decisions locally. This isn't new and shouldn't concern anyone," Abdullah told reporters.

When questioned whether Congress's absence might harm NC candidates' prospects, Abdullah emphasized that the national party has consistently maintained it would neither support the BJP nor allow the saffron party to win.

"Let them hold their meetings; no one should object. The signal from the Congress high command won't be one that benefits the BJP," he added.

Abdullah also expressed gratitude to CPM leader M Y Tarigami and the Independents for attending the meeting.

"Given the enthusiasm I see among our members and allies, I'm hopeful that NC candidates will emerge victorious in all four seats," he stated.

Regarding potential PDP support for NC candidates, Abdullah noted that while PDP president Mehbooba Mufti hadn't made a formal announcement, she assured that appropriate decisions would be made after consulting party colleagues.

"Shammi Oberoi, one of our candidates, met with Mehbooba Mufti and requested her support for NC candidates. Our president Farooq Abdullah had previously contacted Mehbooba as well.

"Although the PDP hasn't announced anything officially, Mehbooba Mufti told both Farooq Abdullah and Oberoi that she would discuss the matter with her party colleagues to reach the right decision," he explained.

The Union territory, which holds four Rajya Sabha seats, has lacked representation in the Upper House since February 15, 2021, when Ghulam Nabi Azad and Nazir Ahmed Laway completed their terms.

Two other members—Fayaz Ahmed Mir and Shamsheer Singh Manhas—finished their terms earlier that year on February 10.