Bihar's Silent Kingmakers: How Scheduled Caste Voters Will Determine the Next Government

As Bihar's political landscape heats up with both the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and Mahagathbandhan scrambling to finalize seat-sharing arrangements, a critical demographic has emerged as the potential kingmaker: the Scheduled Caste (SC) voters. With nomination deadlines approaching, this community's electoral significance cannot be overstated.

The 2023 caste census revealed a game-changing statistic – SCs represent approximately 20% of Bihar's population, significantly higher than the 16% recorded in the 2011 national census. This 4-percentage-point difference translates to 5-6 million voters whose electoral impact has been underestimated for over a decade.

Within the SC community, three dominant groups shape the demographic landscape. The Ravidas and Paswan communities each constitute roughly 5% of Bihar's population, while Musahars account for 3%. Together, these three groups represent nearly 65% of Bihar's total SC population.

Bihar's 243-member legislative assembly includes 38 reserved seats. The NDA's dominance in these constituencies has waned considerably over time – from winning 37 of 38 seats in 2010 to a narrow 21-17 lead by 2020. The most dramatic shift occurred in 2015 when the JD(U), then allied with Mahagathbandhan, helped secure a commanding 29-8 victory in reserved seats.

A common misconception suggests SC voters primarily influence reserved constituencies. The reality reveals a paradox – in reserved seats, major parties field SC candidates, dividing the community's vote and making non-SC voting blocks decisive. SC voters' true political power emerges in non-reserved constituencies where their 20% population share can decisively swing results.

Electoral data clearly demonstrates this influence. In constituencies where Paswans exceed 10% of the population (27 seats), the 2020 results showed an even split with Mahagathbandhan winning 14 seats and NDA 13. More significantly, in Ravidas-dominated areas (29 seats), Mahagathbandhan secured 22 seats compared to NDA's mere 6. Most tellingly, across 82 constituencies where SC population exceeds 20%, Mahagathbandhan led with 52 seats versus NDA's 29.

The 2020 voting patterns reveal nuanced community preferences. According to CSDS post-poll studies, approximately 40% of SC voters supported NDA, 25% backed Mahagathbandhan, and 35% voted for others – largely because Lok Janshakti Party contested independently, capturing 32% of Paswan community votes.

Different SC sub-communities exhibit distinct political alignments influenced by leadership figures. The Ravidas community traditionally supports the BSP along Bihar's eastern border with UP and the Congress, which has appointed Rajesh Ram as state president to strengthen this connection. Meanwhile, Paswan and Musahar voters have generally favored the NDA, guided by Chirag Paswan's LJP leadership and Jitan Ram Manjhi's representation of Mahadalit interests.

Analysis of administrative zones with above-average SC populations further highlights their electoral impact. Of four such zones, Mahagathbandhan led in two (Magadh and Munger) in 2020, NDA in one (Kosi), while Patna showed a close contest. This strong performance in SC-heavy zones enabled Mahagathbandhan to mount a formidable challenge, ultimately losing by just 12,000 votes.

The 2024 general elections marked a significant shift in SC voting patterns, with Mahagathbandhan gaining an estimated 18-20 percentage points among SC voters. Their narrative that "the Constitution is in danger" resonated deeply with SC communities. Approximately 60% supported NDA and 40% backed Mahagathbandhan (INDIA bloc).

Building on this momentum, Mahagathbandhan has launched initiatives like the "Voter Adhikar Yatra" and raised concerns about voter manipulation and mass deletions of marginalized communities in the Special Intensive Revision process, aiming to further strengthen SC support.

The socioeconomic profile of Bihar's SC community explains their responsiveness to welfare schemes and direct cash transfers. Caste census data reveals that 43% of SC households earn less than ₹6,000 monthly (compared to the 34% state average), and 72% earn below ₹10,000 monthly (versus 65% state average).

Educational indicators further highlight their disadvantaged position. Only 3.14% of SC individuals hold graduate degrees (compared to 6.47% state average), while the community faces a 41% illiteracy rate (versus 31% statewide). Despite 16% reservation, government employment stands at just 1.13% compared to 1.57% overall, with private sector employment at a mere 0.51%.

These economic realities explain why welfare programs and cash transfers prove particularly effective in SC-dominated constituencies. For communities struggling with basic survival, immediate economic relief often outweighs long-term political considerations – a factor the NDA leverages by announcing schemes targeting youth, farmers, senior citizens, and laborers.

Despite political reservation, SC communities in Bihar maintain relatively weak bargaining power. They rarely occupy key governmental positions or significant ministerial portfolios, resulting in representation without substantial influence over policies directly affecting their lives.

The community's internal divisions – between groups like Ravidas and Paswan, or the broader Dalit and Mahadalit categorization – further diminish their collective bargaining power. Political parties have historically exploited these divisions by offering symbolic representation while avoiding meaningful power-sharing.

As awareness levels rise, symbolic gestures will no longer satisfy SC voters. Genuine representation in decision-making positions, dedicated manifesto commitments addressing community-specific concerns, and concrete action on employment, education, and economic empowerment are increasingly necessary.

With 20% of Bihar's population and concentrated influence in over 80 constituencies, SC voters hold the key to power in the upcoming election. The alliance that successfully addresses both the symbolic and substantive aspirations of this community will likely form Bihar's next government.

The central question is no longer whether SC votes matter, but which political formation will earn their trust and, consequently, the mandate to govern Bihar.

The personal opinions expressed belong to Amitabh Tiwari, a political strategist and commentator who previously worked in corporate and investment banking.