11 Critical Factors That Will Determine Bihar's 2024 Election Outcome: Beyond Nitish and Tejashwi

As Bihar's election notifications are issued and nominations open, the state stands at a pivotal political juncture. This election is shaping up to be one of the most intricate and unpredictable contests in recent history. Multiple alliances, changing voter demographics, welfare programs, caste calculations, and emerging political figures have created a complex electoral landscape where traditional voting patterns may no longer be reliable.

This analysis examines eleven critical factors that could ultimately determine Bihar's next government.

1. Alliance Dynamics

Both major coalitions - the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) - are facing internal challenges due to new allies and delicate seat-sharing arrangements.

The inclusion of the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) and the Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) has introduced tensions, particularly given the trust deficit between the LJP and the Janata Dal (United) (JD-U). In the 2020 elections, while JD(U) transferred approximately 70% of its votes to BJP candidates, BJP reciprocated with only 55%, with the remaining 15% going to the LJP, which fielded candidates only against JD(U). This time, the Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) might play a similar role, potentially diverting votes that would otherwise flow within the alliance.

The MGB has its own complications with the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), and an LJP faction. They have not finalized seat-sharing arrangements, with Congress asserting itself after its successful Voter Adhikar Yatra.

The ability of both alliances to maintain cohesion and ensure their supporters vote for alliance candidates regardless of party affiliation will be crucial to this election.

2. Leadership Appeal

Tejashwi Yadav of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) currently leads the Chief Ministerial race in multiple surveys, though his appeal is largely limited to the Muslim-Yadav (MY) core vote bloc and some youth. Close behind is Nitish Kumar, the incumbent Chief Minister whose lengthy tenure has earned both accolades and fatigue. Prashant Kishor, the strategist-turned-politician, holds third position, with Chirag Paswan and Samrat Choudhary completing the top five.

According to a VoteVibe survey, only 15% of voters base their decision primarily on the Chief Ministerial candidate. Slightly more (17%) consider the Prime Ministerial face, while 23% are driven by development and issues. The remaining voters are influenced by factors including caste, religion, welfare benefits, and local concerns.

Nitish Kumar's ratings have declined since 2020, with this lost ground being captured primarily by Prashant Kishor. Even Tejashwi Yadav has seen a marginal popularity decline, largely attributed to Kishor's targeted attacks on his educational qualifications.

The NDA's strategy of presenting multiple leaders, each bringing their own community votes, contrasts with the MGB's more centralized leadership around Tejashwi. On a combined basis, NDA leaders exceed MGB leaders' ratings for chief ministerial candidates.

3. Pro-Incumbency vs Anti-Incumbency

Bihar finds itself in an unusual situation with sentiments almost evenly divided between those supporting and opposing the incumbent government. Survey data reveals 48% of people perceive strong anti-incumbency while 32% express pro-incumbency sentiments, with 14% neutral.

When voter sentiment is so evenly divided, mobilizing vote blocs becomes crucial. The anti-government sentiment is fragmented between the MGB and the emerging Jan Suraaj Party. If the MGB can consolidate this anti-incumbency sentiment, it has a clear path to victory.

Meanwhile, pro-incumbency levels have risen from 18% in July to 34% in September, primarily due to the aggressive rollout of welfare schemes. Key questions remain: can welfare schemes announced just before elections compensate for long-term grievances, and can the opposition effectively consolidate anti-incumbency votes?

4. Welfare Economics

The NDA government has launched numerous welfare initiatives targeting youth, women, farmers, senior citizens, and laborers. The strategy aims to shift focus from long-term development failures to immediate relief measures.

These include increased pensions for seniors and widows, unemployment allowances for youth, financial grants for women entrepreneurs, reservation for women in police recruitment, labor subsidies, free electricity, and various other programs.

This welfare approach must be viewed against Bihar's economic reality: the state has India's lowest per capita income, faces significant rural distress, and struggles with chronic underdevelopment. Despite improvements under Nitish Kumar, Bihar still lags severely in Human Development Index indicators due to its low starting point.

Most notably, the state's per capita income remains only one-third of the national average - the same relative position it held in 2005 when Rabri Devi's government was defeated. While absolute figures have grown, Bihar hasn't closed the gap with the rest of India - a point opposition parties emphasize.

5. Modi vs Rahul

This Bihar election marks a departure from previous contests with the prominent entry of national leaders into campaign discourse. With both Nitish Kumar and Tejashwi Yadav seeing declining popularity, the election increasingly reflects a contest between national political formations.

Effectively, the election is framed as Nitish Kumar-Narendra Modi versus Tejashwi Yadav-Rahul Gandhi. According to C-Voter data, Modi maintains a 52% Prime Ministerial rating compared to Gandhi's 41%. However, this gap is narrowing due to Gandhi's Bharat Jodo Yatra and Voter Adhikar Yatra in Bihar. His appeal appears stronger among marginalized communities, youth, minorities, and SC/ST voters.

While Tejashwi commands strong support among Yadavs and Muslims, Congress's traditional appeal among Scheduled Castes and recent gains among OBC and EBC voters could provide the additional percentage points needed for victory.

The NDA's strategy relies heavily on Modi's popularity and his government's welfare schemes at both national and state levels, hoping his charisma and BJP's organizational strength can offset any erosion in Nitish Kumar's ratings.

6. Women Voters

Women have emerged as kingmakers in recent Indian elections, including Bihar. Their distinct needs and concerns often transcend traditional caste divisions.

Approximately 1.21 crore women - 35% of all women voters - have received Rs. 10,000 under the Mahila Rozgar Yojana. Since each family typically has about three voters, these schemes effectively touch 50% of the entire 7.42 crore voter base. This multiplier effect makes women-focused initiatives particularly powerful.

Nitish Kumar has long cultivated this demographic through welfare schemes: bicycle distribution improving girls' school attendance, the Jeevika Didi self-help group initiative, women's reservation in panchayat elections, and widow pensions. Current pre-election programs aim to reinforce this base.

Women's turnout typically exceeds men's by about 5% in Bihar elections. In the 167 seats where women outvoted men in 2020, the NDA won 99 seats compared to MGB's 61. The opposition faces the challenge of either undermining Kumar's welfare credentials or offering more attractive alternatives - which they're attempting with promises of Rs. 2,500 monthly payments to women rather than one-time assistance.

7. Youth Factor

The youth demographic represents both opportunity and challenge for Bihar's political parties. Voters aged 18-29 constitute 25% of the electorate, and those up to 35 years represent around 35%.

This generation views Bihar politics differently than older voters. They don't carry memories of the "jungle raj" of the 1990s, a period Nitish Kumar often contrasts with his governance. For them, the relevant comparison isn't between today's Bihar and the chaotic 1990s, but between Bihar and other progressive states.

Unemployment and migration define this demographic's concerns. Bihar continues experiencing massive youth outmigration seeking opportunities elsewhere. Tejashwi Yadav's "10 lakh jobs" promise in 2020 resonated powerfully with them.

Youth voters show strongest anti-incumbency sentiment, but the benefit is split between Tejashwi Yadav and Prashant Kishor. The latter has gained traction among educated youth through social media and positioning as a development-focused leader. Tejashwi's current promise - a government job for every household - though mathematically impractical given Bihar's approximately 2.5 crore households without government jobs, serves as an emotional rallying cry for secure employment. Whether voters evaluate this promise on practicality or emotional resonance could significantly impact outcomes.

8. Caste Configurations

In Bihar, "caste is cast in stone," with 57% of voters preferring leaders from their own caste, according to an Azim Premji University study. Traditionally, Upper Castes, Non-Yadav OBCs, EBCs, Mahadalits, and Paswans - collectively representing 68% of voters - predominantly support the NDA. Muslims and Yadavs, constituting 32% of the electorate, form the MGB's core.

However, this apparent NDA majority isn't as solid as it seems, which is why the 68% support base translated into just 37% vote share in 2020. The Extremely Backward Classes (26% of electorate) and Scheduled Castes (20%) emerge as kingmakers. The MGB gained popularity among SC voters during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections through messaging about constitutional threats, demonstrating potential fluidity in caste alignments.

The MGB's path to victory requires significant inroads into either the EBC or SC vote - ideally both. Their strategy includes projecting Mukesh Sahni and Rajesh Ram as potential deputy chief ministers for EBC and SC outreach respectively.

The NDA's advantage lies in its diverse caste leadership - Samrat Choudhary (Kushwaha), Chirag Paswan (Paswan), Jitan Ram Manjhi (Manjhi), Vijay Sinha (Upper Caste), and Nitish Kumar (Kurmi) - allowing targeted appeals to specific communities.

9. The Dalit Vote

Dalits, constituting 20% of Bihar's electorate, comprise multiple sub-castes with distinct political preferences and often antagonistic relationships. The Ravidas community and Paswans each represent about 5% of voters, while the Manjhi community accounts for approximately 3%. Paswan and Manjhi communities have traditionally aligned with the NDA, represented by Chirag Paswan and Jitan Ram Manjhi respectively.

The Ravidas community has shown potential movement toward the MGB. Of the 40 seats reserved for SC/STs, the NDA won 22 and MGB 18 in 2020. The battle for these seats will be critical in determining the overall majority.

Educated and young SC voters are increasingly gravitating toward Congress/MGB. The Congress's emphasis on constitutional protections, reservation policies, and social justice resonates with younger, educated Dalits who see these as fundamental to their advancement. Prashant Kishor is also making inroads with SC voters through promises of improved education, healthcare, development, and class-based rather than caste-based politics.

10. The Muslim Vote

Muslims constitute approximately 18% of Bihar's population, with significant regional variation. In the northeastern Seemanchal region, they represent about a quarter of the state's Muslim population. Historically, around 75% of Muslim voters have supported the MGB, making them crucial to the opposition's electoral calculations.

This seemingly solid support faces challenges from multiple directions. The All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) won five seats previously, showing some Muslim voters will support explicitly Muslim-focused parties. Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party is also making inroads, particularly among younger, educated Muslims attracted by his development-focused messaging.

Representation has become increasingly important. Despite being 18% of the population, Muslims hold only about 8% of legislative seats - significant underrepresentation causing community discontent. This representation gap drives some Muslims toward the AIMIM, which promises dedicated Muslim representation rather than relying on secular parties.

Community opinions about the AIMIM's role are divided. Some view it as necessary assertion of Muslim political identity ensuring their issues receive attention, while others see it as a vote-splitter ultimately helping the NDA in crucial constituencies.

In North Bihar, where 75% of the state's Muslims reside, polarization significantly impacts voting patterns. Communal tensions can consolidate Muslim votes behind secular parties but also mobilize counter-voting. In 2020, of 24 seats in Seemanchal, the NDA won 12 due to this phenomenon.

The MGB's strategy depends on maintaining traditional Muslim support while addressing representation concerns. A fragmented Muslim vote could cost them crucial seats.

11. The PK Factor

Perhaps no factor is as unpredictable as Prashant Kishor and his Jan Suraaj Party (JSP). The strategist-turned-politician has captured attention from a segment of Bihar voters, particularly educated, middle-class, and urban citizens.

Kishor aims to establish a third force in Bihar politics, successfully consolidating a portion of the "others" category in political surveys. The JSP's impact was evident in recent by-elections where it damaged MGB prospects by securing a 10% vote share, reducing the MGB's tally from 3-1 to 0-4, ultimately benefiting the NDA.

Significantly, Kishor has undermined Tejashwi Yadav's popularity among youth through sustained criticism of his educational qualifications and leadership capabilities. Simultaneously, he has challenged the NDA's credibility among educated, middle-class, upper-caste voters by highlighting corruption allegations and governance failures.

The critical question is whether the JSP will function as a spoiler - similar to the LJP in 2020 - or emerge as a genuine third force. Current numbers suggest a spoiler role is more likely in the immediate term. Analysis shows 83 seats have victory margins of 5% or less. In these tightly contested constituencies, even a modest JSP vote share could decisively influence outcomes.

Kishor apparently hopes to force a hung assembly where neither alliance achieves a clear majority, potentially positioning the JSP as kingmaker. The challenge is converting survey interest and social media engagement into actual votes and seats.

An Election of Narrow Margins

As Bihar approaches elections, the outcome remains genuinely uncertain. The eleven factors analyzed interact in complex ways, sometimes reinforcing each other, sometimes pulling in opposite directions.

A 2-3% shift in women's votes, consolidation or fragmentation of youth votes, the effectiveness of welfare schemes in changing perceptions, the degree of vote transfer between alliance partners - any of these factors could determine whether the NDA retains power or the MGB achieves an unlikely comeback.

(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author