Supreme Court Orders Court-Monitored CBI Probe into TVK Rally Tragedy: Political Implications for Vijay and DMK in Tamil Nadu

The Supreme Court's directive ordering a court-monitored CBI investigation into the devastating incident that claimed 41 lives at actor-politician Vijay's Tamizha Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) political rally is expected to significantly influence the heated political discourse surrounding this tragedy.

For the Tamil Nadu government, which had established a judicial commission and placed blame on TVK, this order represents a considerable setback. Simultaneously, the Supreme Court's critical observations regarding the Madras High Court's decision to appoint a Special Investigation Team raises profound procedural and substantive concerns.

In Monday's interim ruling, a two-judge Supreme Court bench determined that an independent investigation was essential "to allay concerns and ensure impartiality." Additionally, to address potential concerns about the CBI investigation's impartiality, the court established a three-member monitoring committee chaired by former Supreme Court Justice Ajay Rastogi.

The Supreme Court was addressing multiple petitions, including one filed by TVK, challenging the Madras High Court's order. The party argued that the decision to form a Special Investigation Team was made without including Vijay or other party leaders in the proceedings, effectively denying them the right to present their case.

The Supreme Court criticized the Madras High Court single-judge order, noting that the decision "lacked sensitivity and propriety." The court also expressed concern about judicial discipline since the matter was simultaneously pending before the same court's Madurai bench, which holds territorial jurisdiction over the Karur incident. The single-bench SIT order had resulted in multiple parallel proceedings.

This strongly worded Supreme Court order provides TVK with substantial protection against the DMK's offensive. Until the CBI investigation concludes, Vijay can use this ruling to argue that the state police's allegations were biased.

The rally tragedy had initially provided Chief Minister MK Stalin and his party an opportunity to criticize TVK. DMK leaders issued numerous statements accusing Vijay and his party of neglecting safety norms and failing to provide basic amenities, including drinking water, for attendees. They further alleged that Vijay and his party leadership "fled the incident site."

Until now, Vijay and TVK have remained on the defensive. Political opposition to the DMK in this matter has primarily come from the AIADMK and BJP, who have appeared to support TVK and place greater responsibility on the state government for the tragedy.

For the first time since the incident, Vijay's party has now released public statements welcoming the Supreme Court's decision. A CBI investigation means the DMK and Tamil Nadu government will no longer control the narrative.

Notably, despite DMK's allegations, Vijay's supporters and even victims' families have not publicly blamed him or made critical remarks. The DMK's accusations also risk alienating the actor-politician from his fan base and followers.

The Supreme Court's ruling and observations provide Vijay with ammunition to challenge the DMK as he resumes public engagements and plans visits to Karur to meet affected families.

Ultimately, the CBI's findings will prove decisive, making this investigation potentially double-edged for Vijay. If the central agency holds his party responsible, it would be devastating. TVK maintains an antagonistic stance toward both the ruling DMK and the BJP, and unfavorable conclusions could leave the party politically isolated.

The DMK has consistently claimed that the government misuses central agencies to target opposition parties. Meanwhile, the BJP has supported the CBI investigation and backed Vijay thus far, prompting DMK to question whether the probe might give the central government leverage over TVK.

AIADMK leader Edappadi Palaniswamy, a key NDA ally, has indicated openness to an alliance with TVK. However, such a partnership faces significant challenges: Vijay cannot accept EPS as Chief Ministerial candidate and equal, nor can EPS accept Vijay as the Chief Ministerial face. Even if these issues were resolved, the BJP connection remains problematic. Given Vijay's strong position and minority support base, associating with the BJP could be difficult to justify, though politics often creates unexpected alliances.

Will this tragedy, the investigation, and the surrounding politics alter Vijay's political outlook and alliances in Tamil Nadu before 2026? Despite the immense tragedy, the political discourse around it will likely intensify as next year's assembly elections approach.

These views represent the personal opinions of the author, who serves as Executive Editor at NDTV.