Pakistan's Strategic Maneuvering: Using Gaza Protests to Avoid Israel Recognition Commitments

Pakistan's actions continue to astound observers. While facing American pressure to join the Abraham Accords and recognize Israel, Pakistan has deployed a familiar strategy: orchestrating massive street protests supporting Gaza. These demonstrations occur despite the region moving toward peace, with Gazans themselves desiring an end to conflict. The primary organization behind these protests is the Tehreek e Labbaik Pakistan (TLP), which has previously served the Pakistani military's interests through well-timed public demonstrations.

The TLP emerged dramatically in 2017 during protests against then-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who had provoked military displeasure partly through his attempts to improve relations with India. Even after Sharif's removal, the group continued demonstrations, demanding alterations to the Election Act 2017 regarding constitutional declarations about Prophet Muhammad. Under Barelvi leader Khadim Rizvi, TLP supporters staged a violent sit-in at Islamabad's Faizabad interchange, forcing the government to capitulate and leading to the Law Minister's resignation. A viral image showing a Major General distributing money to protesters revealed the military connection.

In the 2018 elections, the TLP contested nationwide with surprisingly substantial funding for a newcomer, undermining Sharif's party in Punjab. The military supported Imran Khan, a TLP sympathizer, who subsequently gained power. However, the TLP's increasing autonomy created problems when in 2020 it demanded closing the French Embassy over controversial cartoons, embarrassing Khan's government. Khadim Rizvi mysteriously died during these protests, and the TLP faced a short-lived ban lifted through a secretive agreement with General Bajwa. Under Khadim's son Saad Rizvi, the TLP resumed protests in March 2022 as Khan fell from military favor, contributing to his removal a month later. By 2023, all restrictions were lifted, allowing TLP to register as a political party. Despite losing vote share in 2024 elections, its influence appears to have expanded significantly by 2025.

The current street violence relates to Field Marshal Asim Munir and the Prime Minister's diplomatic initiatives. Munir's engagement with Washington, including a private lunch with President Trump, apparently came with conditions. Reports indicated Pakistan would join the Abraham Accords recognizing Israel amid Middle East transformations. Additionally, Pakistan signed a "Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement" with Saudi Arabia on September 15, potentially expanding to include other nations. Trump announced that Sharif had endorsed a peace plan effectively sidelining Hamas, suggesting Pakistan was being positioned as an Islamic world leader contingent on recognizing Israel.

This triggered immediate backlash. The Pakistani Parliament opposed the plan, led by Jamaat-e-Islami. Though Pakistani leaders quickly backtracked, the damage was done. Within days, the TLP mobilized street demonstrations over Gaza, paralyzing major cities. Over a hundred police officers were injured and hundreds of vehicles destroyed as violence spread across at least three metropolitan areas. Police noted the protests made little sense given that Palestinians themselves welcomed peace talks. The TLP announced plans to camp at Muridke indefinitely without articulating specific demands. Western media coverage achieved the establishment's goal of relieving American pressure, though this time the protests appear to have exceeded control as Punjab police, tired of manipulation, are resisting—creating a dangerous internal division.

Remarkably, Western narratives once portrayed the TLP as a peaceful Barelvi alternative to groups like al-Qaeda, embracing Sufism. This post-9/11 perspective has proven false. In reality, Pakistan's deep state continually sponsors various groups while temporarily restraining others like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed.

The current dilemma is that any reversal of commitments to recognize Israel will undermine Pakistan's aspirations in West Asia—opportunities being offered by President Trump himself. The region no longer tolerates prolonging the Palestinian issue. Pakistan must either join this regional shift or face isolation. If Rawalpindi believes it can simultaneously praise Trump while citing internal "instability" to avoid commitment to the Gaza plan, it miscalculates. A transactional president like Trump has no patience for TLP-style maneuvering. The choice is simple: commit or withdraw.

(The author is a former director of the National Security Council Secreteriat)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author