Decoding Chirag Paswan's 'Abki Baari, Yuva Bihari' Campaign: Political Ambitions and Alliance Dynamics in Bihar Elections

New Delhi:

The Lok Janshakti Party's recent social media post featuring the slogan "abki baari, yuva Bihari" appears on the surface to be a standard political appeal targeting young voters ahead of Bihar's November elections. This demographic represents a crucial but disenchanted voting bloc in a state plagued by high unemployment rates.

However, this seemingly straightforward campaign messaging carries deeper implications—specifically, that LJP leader Chirag Paswan has aspirations for the chief ministerial position, which resonates differently with various political stakeholders.

For the Bharatiya Janata Party, the LJP's federal-level ally and current seat-sharing negotiation partner in Bihar, the message reaffirms Paswan's continued loyalty despite complicated relations with Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal United, the other half of Bihar's governing coalition.

The JDU has maintained a distinctly cool stance toward Paswan, largely stemming from the 2020 election when the party felt deliberately undermined by—and subsequently lost voter support to—an LJP allegedly receiving tacit backing from the BJP, ostensibly their mutual ally.

Similarly, the LJP harbors lukewarm sentiments toward Nitish Kumar, viewing him as obstructing Chirag Paswan's path to becoming chief minister. In pre-election communications, Paswan has repeatedly criticized the Chief Minister, particularly regarding Bihar's law enforcement challenges, prompting the BJP to intervene as mediator.

Although Paswan subsequently endorsed Nitish Kumar for the chief ministerial position, underlying tensions persist. This became evident through multiple instances throughout the year when posters appeared across Patna announcing Chirag Paswan as Bihar's next Chief Minister, most recently in May.

When questioned by NDTV about his possible tacit approval of these posters, Paswan responded: "Many times sentiments of the workers are so strong you cannot stop them even if you want to." He added that party workers naturally should aspire for their leader to become Chief Minister.

The implicit message directed at the JDU seems to suggest their time in leadership is ending. Youth unemployment and resulting discontent are anticipated to be decisive factors in the upcoming election—explaining why Tejashwi Yadav's opposition Rashtriya Janata Dal is also actively courting this demographic.

Paswan has previously introduced his "Bihar first, Bihari first" platform addressing unemployment concerns.

Nevertheless, the political reality remains that the JDU commands the voter base necessary for the BJP to maintain it as its primary state-level partner, requiring Paswan to exercise patience.

Criticizing Bihar's crime statistics and distributing posters suggesting a future Chirag Paswan administration represents one strategy to shift public opinion. Simultaneously, Paswan must maintain positive relations with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP leadership.

This balancing act is reflected in the slogan's phrasing. "Abki baar, yuva Bihar" deliberately echoes the BJP's successful campaign phrases "abki baar, Modi sarkar" and "abki baar, 400 paar" from recent elections, including last year's Lok Sabha contest—widely interpreted as affirming Paswan's continued allegiance to Modi's party.

Notably, neither the poster nor its accompanying social media post explicitly identifies Chirag Paswan as a chief ministerial candidate. At face value, it simply represents a rallying cry from a political figure negotiating his position within a broader coalition.

Bihar's upcoming election will be conducted in two phases, with voting scheduled for November 6 and 11. Results will be announced three days later on November 14.