IMD Forecasts 15% Above-Normal Rainfall Across India For October 2023

New Delhi:

India is projected to experience 15 percent higher rainfall than usual in October, following a productive four-month monsoon season, according to an announcement by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday.

IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra indicated that most regions in east-northeast and northwest India will likely face above-normal maximum temperatures during October.

He further noted, "Other parts of the country are expected to see normal to below-normal maximum temperatures throughout the month."

Mohapatra stated that the post-monsoon period (October to December) will bring above-normal rainfall to most of India, with the exception of certain areas in northwest India where precipitation levels may be normal to below-normal.

According to the IMD forecast, the Northeast Monsoon rainfall (October to December) across south peninsular India—comprising the meteorological subdivisions of Tamil Nadu, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala, and South Interior Karnataka—is most likely to exceed normal levels (over 112 percent of the long period average).

The long period average (LPA) for rainfall in South Peninsular India during October to December, calculated from data between 1971 and 2020, stands at approximately 334.13 mm.

Mohapatra confirmed that the country is expected to receive above-normal rainfall in October (exceeding 115 percent of the LPA of 75.4 mm).

He attributed this increased rainfall to the formation of low-pressure systems in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, combined with intra-seasonal variability and other large-scale atmospheric processes.

Despite this general trend, certain regions in northwest India and isolated areas in the southern peninsula and northeast India may experience normal to below-normal rainfall during October.