Mumbai's Political Transformation: How Shiv Sena Corporators Realigned Before Critical BMC Elections

MNS Chief Raj Thackeray addresses party workers on voter list issues ahead of upcoming BMC polls (File)

Maharashtra's 29 urban centers are set to hold municipal corporation elections on January 15, with results announced the following day.

Mumbai will finally elect a mayor after a three-year hiatus, but the political landscape has transformed dramatically since the last election. In 2017, Uddhav Thackeray was a key National Democratic Alliance (NDA) leader both nationally and in Maharashtra; Raj and Uddhav Thackeray were fierce rivals; and Shiv Sena remained a unified political force.

During the 2017 elections, the then-united Shiv Sena secured 84 corporator seats in Mumbai. Their numbers subsequently increased to 88 when four independents joined their ranks, followed by a controversial absorption of six Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) corporators, bringing their total to 94.

By the end of their term, following by-elections, Shiv Sena's strength in Mumbai had reached 99 corporators. The party has since split, with 44 former corporators aligning with Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena faction, while 55 remain loyal to Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena (UBT).

The ruling coalition's civic advantage has significantly eroded since Mumbai's last election. In 2017, there existed one unified Shiv Sena, with Uddhav Thackeray allied with governing parties at both state and national levels, while the Thackeray cousins remained bitter political opponents. The 2026 landscape appears starkly different—a substantial faction has broken from the Sena, claiming the party's name and symbol, Uddhav and Raj Thackeray have shown signs of political alignment, and the BJP is determined to strengthen its position in the civic body.

Following the 2017 results, the united Shiv Sena emerged as the largest party with 84 corporators, closely followed by BJP with 82. Then-state revenue minister Chandrakant Patil emphasized that the Sena-BJP relationship extended "far beyond elections," striking a conciliatory tone despite the narrow margin.

The Sena-BJP alliance subsequently took control of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) in 2017. The political narrative shifted in 2019 when Uddhav Thackeray became BJP's main opponent, and further changed in 2022 when Shiv Sena fractured, with Eknath Shinde departing with most of the party's MLAs.

Mumbai's civic elections, originally scheduled for 2022 after the BMC's five-year term concluded, faced repeated postponements due to prolonged legal and political challenges. A Supreme Court ruling mandated that states complete an empirical "triple test" before implementing OBC reservations in local body elections. Mumbai also experienced disputes over ward boundaries, including fluctuations in corporator seat numbers. With reservation protocols and ward demarcations under litigation and courts maintaining status quo at various stages, the State Election Commission declared it legally impossible to announce elections, leaving the BMC under administrative control.

While engineering the party split, Eknath Shinde initially drew MLAs away from Uddhav Thackeray. The ripple effects soon reached the civic body as former corporators from the 2017 cohort steadily defected, substantially weakening UBT's organizational foundation within the BMC while bolstering the Shinde-led Sena's claim as the party's legitimate successor.

Following setbacks in the 2024 Assembly elections, Shinde publicly launched 'Operation Tiger,' aimed at further undermining Shiv Sena (UBT) by recruiting grassroots leaders into the ruling Sena—a strategy that prompted additional corporator defections.

On the election schedule announcement day, Tejasvi Ghosalkar, another former UBT corporator, joined the BJP in the presence of senior party leaders.

"There is a lot for us to say too, but we won't say it now," remarked Aditya Thackeray when questioned about the ongoing exodus.