Trinamool's Strategic Response to Polarization Ahead of West Bengal Elections

The Trinamool Congress has intensified its criticism of the Central government for withholding Bengal's financial dues.

Kolkata:

Recently suspended Trinamool Congress MLA Humayun Kabir's announcement to build a 'Babri Masjid' in Murshidabad district has added a new layer of complexity to what promises to be an intensely fought Assembly election in West Bengal next year.

The political climate in the state, which the BJP is eager to capture, is already tense due to the ongoing Special Intensive Revision (SIR). Political observers are watching closely to see how Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and her ruling Trinamool Congress will address this latest polarizing development.

Kabir, 62, who represents Bharatpur constituency and previously belonged to the BJP before joining Trinamool Congress, has declared his intention to launch his own political party. He's seeking alliances with organizations like AIMIM and the Indian Secular Front (ISF) - the sole non-TMC, non-BJP party to secure a seat in the 2021 Bengal Assembly elections - in an attempt to attract a significant portion of the state's approximately 30% Muslim electorate.

In response, Banerjee and the TMC are likely to emphasize Kabir's previous BJP connections. The party has consistently claimed that Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM has been utilized as part of BJP's strategy in various states including Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, primarily to divide Muslim votes.

During her rallies, Banerjee has been highlighting these connections and urging constituents to vote exclusively for TMC - not even for Independent candidates - if they wish to prevent BJP from gaining power.

The Trinamool chief has also been visiting areas with significant Muslim and SC/ST populations to ensure their names aren't omitted from voter lists during the SIR process. Meanwhile, the BJP has been using the SIR to emphasize concerns about "infiltrators," with Kabir's mosque proposal providing additional ammunition against TMC.

Banerjee and TMC are countering these narratives by focusing on Bengali cultural identity, a strategy that proved effective during both the 2019 Lok Sabha polls and 2021 Assembly elections. A recent incident in Kolkata, where a vendor was attacked for selling chicken patties near a Bhagavad Gita recital venue, is being framed by TMC as evidence of BJP's alleged agenda to impose vegetarianism, which contradicts Bengali cultural traditions centered around fish consumption. In Bengali wedding customs, fish is ceremonially presented to the bride's family by the groom's side as a symbol of prosperity.

Following the JD(U)-BJP alliance's sweeping victory in Bihar attributed partly to populist policies, Banerjee is expected to announce similar initiatives, including enhancing the 'Lakshmi Bhandar' program benefiting women. A scaled-down Bengal Global Business Summit is also planned for next year to demonstrate the party's commitment to both welfare programs and economic development.

Simultaneously, TMC has intensified its criticism of the BJP-led Central government for withholding Bengal's financial dues.

TMC's Analysis of Kabir's Impact

Regarding Kabir, TMC sources suggest his influence will likely be limited to certain areas within Murshidabad district. "He is not perceived as having statewide influence," one source indicated.

The party believes that the Indian Secular Front, which previously allied with the Left Front and Congress, may not enthusiastically support another Muslim-oriented party's emergence in Bengal, potentially limiting Kabir's desired level of support.

Sources also suggest that the SIR and related issues have generated discontent among Muslim communities, potentially consolidating their support for TMC.

Another advantage the party perceives is its early initiation of district-level campaigns, while the BJP has yet to commence similar activities.

The BJP, however, maintains that public dissatisfaction with Banerjee's governance and alleged corruption under TMC rule will lead to a quiet shift in voter preferences during the upcoming elections.