Will India and the US Reach a Trade Deal Soon? S Jaishankar Provides Strategic Perspective on Negotiations

Foreign Minister S Jaishankar indicated on Saturday that a trade agreement between India and the United States might soon become a reality, though he cautioned that diplomatic situations can change rapidly. Speaking at the HT Leadership Summit with NDTV's CEO and Editor-in-Chief Rahul Kanwal, he emphasized that India must protect its national interests during negotiations.

"We believe there can be a landing point for our respective trade interests. This will require hard negotiation. For India, the welfare of our workers, farmers, and middle class is paramount. When considering trade agreements with the US, we must take an extremely judicious approach to our position," the Foreign Minister stated.

Jaishankar dismissed suggestions of communication gaps with Washington, stressing the importance of engagement to resolve differences. He identified trade as the most critical aspect of India-US relations and expressed confidence in reaching a reasonable agreement.

Regarding the timing of a potential deal, he noted, "The trade talks have progressed through multiple rounds. We must see when decisions are made and under what conditions. If you ask whether it could happen soon, my answer is yes, it's very possible. But it may also take longer—I cannot say with certainty."

He added a note of caution about diplomatic processes: "You're always optimistic, but suddenly things can turn around. It can turn around in just one weekend."

The Foreign Minister observed that while every American president has their distinctive approach, President Donald Trump's methods differ radically from his predecessors.

President Trump has previously criticized the trade deficit with India, and both nations have been engaged in intensive negotiations over recent months to develop a comprehensive trade agreement.

Key obstacles to the deal include India's resistance to opening its vulnerable dairy and poultry markets to foreign competition.

The US has been pushing India to open its markets to American agricultural products including corn, soybeans, wheat, ethanol, fruits, and nuts. India, with its agricultural economy, has been reluctant to provide such access. These demands have crossed what the Indian government considers a "red line."

A major concern for India is that the US primarily grows genetically modified corn and soybeans. India prohibits the import of GM food crops, considering them potentially harmful to human health and the environment.

The dairy sector represents another sensitive area that provides livelihoods for millions of Indians. Many small and landless farmers depend on dairy production to help them weather unpredictable monsoons or fluctuations in crop yields.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has previously declared that India will not compromise on farmers' interests during trade negotiations.