India's Population Projected to Stabilize at 1.9 Billion by 2080 as Fertility Rates Continue to Decline

While life expectancy increases due to healthcare advancements, birth rates continue to decline significantly across India.

Kolkata:

India's population growth is projected to stabilize at approximately 1.8 or 1.9 billion by 2080, primarily due to the significant reduction in total fertility rate (TFR), which currently stands below replacement level at 1.9, according to experts.

The country is experiencing a dramatic demographic shift, with birth rates showing a sharp downward trend over the last two decades.

"Our TFR was 3.5 in 2000, and today it has fallen to 1.9, representing a dramatic decrease," explained Anil Chandran, general secretary of the Indian Association for the Study of Population (IASP), in a statement to PTI.

Chandran indicated that population projections suggest India will reach its peak population of 1.8 or 1.9 billion around 2080, after which growth is expected to plateau.

"All demographic projections indicate India's maximum population will remain under two billion," he added.

The declining fertility rates can be attributed mainly to rising development indicators and education levels across the country. Increased female literacy has directly influenced decisions regarding marriage timing and family planning, resulting in smaller family sizes.

Improved access to contraceptives and wider availability of birth control methods have further accelerated this demographic transition.

"Today's couples are more informed and have greater control over their reproductive choices, including when to have children and how many to have," Chandran observed.

He noted that delayed marriages and expanding economic opportunities, particularly for career-focused women, have significantly impacted reproductive decisions.

"Development indicators show an inverse relationship with birth rates. While illiterate groups maintain fertility levels above three, educated populations show TFR between 1.5 and 1.8," he explained.

Referring to Kerala as a case study, Chandran highlighted how the state achieved replacement-level fertility (2.1) between 1987 and 1989, and currently maintains a TFR of approximately 1.5.

West Bengal has also experienced a remarkable decline in fertility rates. According to the Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report 2023, the state's TFR has decreased to 1.3 from 1.7 in 2013 – an 18 percent reduction that places it well below the replacement level of 2.1. West Bengal now has one of the country's lowest fertility rates, comparable to Tamil Nadu and slightly higher than Delhi, while recording the nation's lowest urban TFR and second-lowest rural TFR.

The demographer emphasized that while birth rates continue to decrease, improvements in healthcare have extended life expectancy significantly.

"The population of individuals living beyond 60 years is growing, creating new challenges in elderly care, particularly as younger generations migrate for employment," he noted, adding that solutions such as elderly day-care facilities are increasingly becoming part of social planning discussions.

The IASP, established in 1971 and comprising approximately 1,100 demographers and population scientists, regularly addresses these demographic challenges with support from organizations including UNFPA, the Population Council, and the Population Foundation of India.