Opinion | A Year After Hasina's Ouster, Stability Still Eludes Bangladesh
Even after a year, instability in Bangladesh has not subsided. We all await, with keen anticipation, the announcement of elections in the country.
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One year ago, on August 5, Sheikh Hasina, the then Prime Minister of Bangladesh, was forced to flee Dhaka for New Delhi in a historic and dramatic exodus. Despite a full year having passed, Bangladesh continues to experience significant political instability. The nation and international observers eagerly await the announcement of elections.
Several critical questions remain unanswered: What is Bangladesh's current trajectory? What are the interests of major powers like the United States, China, and India? How much influence does India truly have over Bangladesh's situation?
The events of August 5, 2024, remain vivid in my memory. I was among several journalists present at West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee's office in the Legislative Assembly when news broke at 2:25 pm that Sheikh Hasina had departed Dhaka via helicopter, accompanied by her sister Sheikh Rehana, bound for Delhi.
Information flowed continuously into the Chief Minister's office. The Chief Secretary and Director General of Police frequently entered the antechamber for consultations, coordinating with Delhi throughout this significant political upheaval. Muhammad Yunus subsequently assumed the role of acting prime minister.
A year later, Bangladesh remains in a precarious state with palpable restlessness throughout the country. The Jamaat party has significantly increased its activities. As another August 5 approaches, my hope as both an Indian and a Bengali is that the Bangladeshi people, regardless of political affiliation or ideology, do not suffer. Political instability in neighboring countries inevitably affects India, particularly West Bengal, which shares the majority of India's border with Bangladesh. Our immediate priority should be prompt elections in Bangladesh, allowing citizens to exercise their democratic rights. India certainly cannot accept either military rule or extremist forces suppressing secularism in Bangladesh.
On June 13 this year, former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia's son Tarique Rahman met with Yunus in London, demanding immediate elections. Yunus requested more time, noting that Ramadan would begin mid-February 2026, making elections during that period impractical. The joint statement issued after their meeting lacked signatures, raising serious questions about the constitutional validity of BNP's demands and Yunus's commitment to any agreements.
Yunus has also cited the need for administrative reforms as reason for delay. When he assumed power, the Bangladesh military stipulated elections must be held within 18 months, clearly stating that maintaining internal order was not their responsibility—their focus must remain on addressing external defense threats.
Despite reasonable expectations for election announcements soon, the situation remains extremely complex. Bangladesh's strategic geopolitical position has made it a battleground between US and Chinese interests. US Charge d'Affaires Tracy Jacobson, currently posted in Bangladesh, has held meetings with representatives from various political parties including Jamaat and BNP.
The US State Department and Hillary Clinton played significant roles in Yunus's rise to power (with Donald Trump subsequently re-elected as US President on January 20, 2025). American officials continuously urge Yunus to hold elections while raising concerns about ongoing violence and terrorist activities, including the need to act against banned organizations like Hizb ut-Tahrir.
While Yunus has promised "zero tolerance" for terrorism and mass violence, BNP increasingly suspects his talk of "electoral reforms" is merely pretext for delaying elections. Without Awami League participation, BNP believes its return to power would be straightforward. Speculation suggests that if India pressures Yunus to include Awami League in the electoral process, BNP might agree—another potential reason for election delays. There are also concerns that Yunus is attempting to strengthen the NCP party before elections.
The US has demonstrated particular interest in Saint Martin's Island—a strategic location they have sought since Sheikh Mujibur Rahman's time, which Sheikh Hasina firmly refused to place under US control. After Yunus took power, US military exercises were conducted there, raising fears among both BNP and Awami League that Yunus might grant the US access to the area in exchange for extending his interim tenure.
Meanwhile, both the US and China are actively involved in Myanmar's Rakhine province and Arakan. China appears interested in expanding influence in these regions through Bangladesh via Pakistan's Rohingya Salvation Army, with Pakistan's ISI chief even visiting Dhaka. These factors add considerable complexity to Bangladesh's electoral landscape.
India faces a delicate balancing act: siding with the US could antagonize China, while India already faces trade tensions with Trump's administration. Whether elections would result in Yunus maintaining power through US support and Jamaat backing, or in a BNP victory, remains unclear to India. Given Yunus's current position, Delhi has maintained diplomatic relations with his government.
The new Bangladesh High Commissioner has presented credentials in Delhi and met with Mamata Banerjee in Kolkata, though avoiding press interactions. This diplomatic engagement with the Yunus government clearly proceeds with India's consent. However, there are no indications of India initiating talks with Jamaat, despite their expressed interest—likely due to India's domestic political considerations.
Some diplomatic experts question: if Ajit Doval could engage with the Taliban in Afghanistan, why not with Jamaat? Afghanistan has shifted partially toward favoring India despite previous Pakistani influence. Many diplomats believe a BNP government would strongly favor China, potentially explaining US preference for Yunus and India's maintained diplomatic channels with his administration.
Regardless of political outcomes, protecting Bangladesh's Hindu minority remains paramount. With West Bengal assembly elections scheduled for April-May 2026, Bangladesh elections occurring beforehand would benefit West Bengal's stability. However, simultaneous elections, particularly if accompanied by Jamaat-led attacks on Hindu minorities, could create serious challenges for Mamata Banerjee.
The BJP could weaponize such incidents against her, potentially triggering dangerous religious polarization in both West Bengal and Bangladesh. Citizens on both sides share the dream of preserving the harmonious relationship that has existed since Bangladesh's 1971 independence. Therefore, early elections in Bangladesh are essential for regional stability.
(The author is Consulting Editor, NDTV)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author